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MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/3/24

Updated: Apr 3

This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.


My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/3/24- Astros vs. Blue Jays.


I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.


I will give you a short video preview at 6:15PM to cover this Daily Lineup Analysis.


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Follow my X account at @larrythegmman for real takes.


Clint broke down some interesting pitch allocation stuff today. Check that out here.

https://www.larrythegm.com/post/astros-first-impressions-of-the-starting-rotation-s-pitch-allocation



https://www.larrythegm.com/post/astros-are-about-to-be-mind-blowing-good

Tonight, look for this article on the site


It is happening!



Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.


Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.


Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.


IF you want the opportunity to get this data everyday sign up at one of these two links.


https://www.larrythegm.com/post/premium-astros-series-guide-data-blue-jays-4-1-4-3

You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Blue Jays 4/1- 4/3 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.


The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data


This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.


We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.


It was a rough way to lose last night. We may see something better tonight.


Starting for the Astros- Cristian Javier vs. the Blue Jays

Today the Astros go with Javier.

Last Start- Javier was VERY GOOD in his first start and gave up no ER in 6.0 IP. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.182 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.323.

Javier vs. Blue Jays

This lineup has a 0.328 xwOBA matchup vs. Javier. This is good for the Astros vs. a tough Blue Jays lineup.


Unlike last night there are NOT a lot of Best Bets for the Blue Jays.

  • Guerrero Jr. 0.384 - over 1.5 Total Hits, Runs And RBI's (-150 on Bovada)

  • That's it folks.

These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Blue Jays.


The runs model would project them to score 4.9 runs today if Javier was in the game for 9 innings.


I am not ready to recommend pitching yet, but Javier is probably not a bad play.



Starting for the Blue Jays- Chris Bassitt vs. the Astros


Last start- Chris Bassitt gave up 4 ER in 5.0 IP. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.317 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.310. He had some bad luck in his first start (BABIP 0.357) and was hammered by the LHH. This explains the usage of Singleton tonight in case you were wondering.

Bassitt vs. Astros

Overall, the Astros team has a 0.330 xwOBA matchup vs. Bassitt. This would be OK but not great for Astros fans.


I would stay away from a bet on Bassitt because Alvarez is so over due it is his time.


The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:

  • Alvarez 0.479 - over 1.5 total bases- (-115 on Bovada)

  • Tucker 0.410 - over 1.5 Total Hits, Runs And RBI's- (-155)

I am so confident in Alvarez, I am tempted by these possibilities too.

  • Alvarez over 2.5 Total Hits, Runs And RBI's- (+110)

  • Alvarez to hit a HR- (+220)

Alvarez is so overdue. I take three shots with him and will continue to do so.


The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.0 runs today if Bassitt was in the game for 9 innings.


Let's have fun tonight Astros fans.




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