The season has started!
Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Blue Jays. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis. Free for the first two series.
These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.
To celebrate the start of the season I am making these Premium Astros Series Guide Data articles free for the first series with the Blue Jays.
Both the Astros and the Blue Jays are very good hitting teams and are extremely close pitching level teams.
If you want to get this data beyond the first two series
Subscribe to Premium level on the website.
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The Big Picture - WAR Rankings
The Astros project to have the third ranked offense, and the Blue Jays project to be the seventh ranked bats.
The Astros project to have the seventh ranked pitching group and the Blue Jays project to be the sixth best mound crew.
Overall, the Astros project to have the third highest WAR, and the Blue Jays project to deliver the sixth highest WAR.
The Astros are starting the season with the two other best projected teams in the AL at a time their pitching staff is severely limited.
WAR by Positions
These two teams have All-Star quality all over the field. Here are a few differences:
Catcher- Kirk is an All-Star workhorse, Diaz is one step behind
First Base- Guerrero Jr. is an All-Star, Abreu is not anymore
Second Base- Altuve is an All-Star, Biggio is the son of an All-Star
Shortstop- Blue Jays advantage
Third Base- Bregman is an All-Star, Kiner-Falefa is the Blue Jays weakest hitting link
Right Field- Tucker is an All-Star, Springer is showing signs of an aging All-Star
Designated Hitter- Alvarez is an All-Star, Turner is serviceable at DH.
The pitching is basically even
Overall, the Astros have about a 3 WAR advantage.
Current Team Status
The Astros are reeling after being swept by the Yankees. The batting has been below league average which is terrible with the projected third best hitting WAR. As a team the Astros are hitting 0.672 OPS down from 0.768. That in itself explains a multitude of their current woes. The pitching, especially the hyped bullpen has been terrible (6.89 ERA) blowing leads that the good (2.66 ERA) but not long starters have given them.
The Blue Jays are 2-2 after a tough series with the Rays. Toronto has been somewhat bimodal in their games. The offense and pitching were great in their two wins. Their batting struggled in their two loses. The pitching gave up 8 runs in one of their loses. The Blue Jays overall are down offensively but some of that is accounted by starting in Tampa Bay. The pitching is below league average which is below expectations for the sixth best pitching staff. Torontos starters (4.58 ERA) have struggled while their relievers (3.77 ERA) have been average.
Both teams enter this series wanting to get some real momentum / positivity going.
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
Two quality offenses and you can see where the Astros have the quality avantage in the batting order.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 117 wRC+. The current Blue Jays line projects to hit 108 wRC+.
Pitching Staff Comparison
This table compares the pitching of the two teams by each role on their staff.
Again, the pitching staffs are very similar with the Blue Jays having an advantage currently in starting pitching and the Astros having an advantage in their leverage bullpen. That is not how the teams have started, however.
The Astros project to pitch 4.20 FIP in 2024. The Blue Jays project to pitch 4.18 FIP in 2024.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
Please see the data description below.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
Astros Batters vs. LHP
Astros Batters vs. RHP
Astros Pitching vs. LHH
Astros Pitching vs. RHH
Blue Jays Batters vs. LHP
Blue Jays Batters vs. RHP
Blue Jays Pitching vs. LHH
Blue Jays Pitching vs. RHH
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
Basic Rules
Red is good for that player.
Blue is not good.
Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
I will do a live watch party TONIGHT 4/1/24 and show you all how to read this data in real time. The Link will appear here later today.
The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.
Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.
Data Description
Batting Data- 2023
This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.
Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.
One can then see how the batter performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Pitching Data- 2023
This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.
Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.
One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.