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Astros: Welcome Back Cabbage

Here at LarryTheGM we welcome back Trey Cabbage and discuss what he can bring to the Astros this season and we give you a little song for the folks out there.


The move was made official by the Astros as they welcomed back Trey Cabbage on 5/1/24.














Wait, wasn't Cabbage JUST HERE?


Here is my theme song for the day.


Lyrics


Welcome back (Cabbage)
Your dreams were your ticket out (of AAA)
Welcome back (Cabbage)

To that same old place that you laughed about
Well the names have all changed since you hung around (Loperfido is here now too)
But those dreams have remained and they've turned around

Who'd have thought they'd lead ya
Back here where we need ya
Yeah. we tease him a lot 'cause we got him on the spot (rook)

Welcome back
Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back
Welcome back, welcome back (Cabbage)

Trey Cabbage is back, but how good will he be? Maybe we should start by discussing how much will he actually play.


First, here is where Cabbage, Loperfido, and Singleton have actually played the last two seasons.

Positions 2023-2024

Here are the comparative stats for the players in play for time at 1B, CF, and LF. I am showing the xwOBA stats by pitch types vs. LHP and RHP. This is 2023-2024 data where the AAA is factored by 80% to project how it may look in the MLB.

Astros vs. LHP pitches
Astros vs. RHP pitches

I know this is not what people like to see and hear but MLB teams are very focused on MATCHUPs when considering who will start on a daily basis.


Given the data above, here is how I would generally matchup the Astros vs. the different types of pitchers.

PT decision Matrix

To oversimplify let's say each column represents 20% of the pitching population. Let's assume 75% of pitchers are RHSP and 25% are LHSP.

PT Estimate

I KNOW that is a ton of numbers. Focus on the red column and then the other bold columns.


In short, I expect Loperfido to be a MAINLY LF who plays MOST (80%+) of the time vs. RHP.


In short, I expect Cabbage to split his time between 1B and LF and play about the same vs. RHP and LHP. Cabbage should be deployed vs. Fastball dominant pitchers almost exclusively.


I put out a PT distribution with the Loperfido call up. Now that the Abreu option and Cabbage call up are official, I have revised that. Based on the PT above.

Astros updated PT estimate

I think Cabbage will get about 40% playing time. For now, I have left Abreu as getting PT after he returns but this too may change (up or down).This is an adjustment from the data in the Fangraphs PT distribution.


How will Cabbage do?

Cabbage performance est.

Much like Loperfido, the projections have Cabbage as a near average hitter with a wRC+ of 97.


As shown above, Cabbage is best at hitting fastballs.

Cabbage by pitches

When sorted by pitch type category.

Cabbage  by pitch type

This is the data used in the green tables above.


Warning, Cabbage has not been great in 2024 with RISP.

Cabbage RISP

Welcome back Trey Cabbage. This trip to the majors should be better than 2023 and the two-day trip to Mexico.


Cabbage should hit fastballs and be valuable as a first baseman AND outfielder.


P.S. Trey Cabbage's birthday is tomorrow 5/3/97.


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