Before we dive into the Essential Team Season Previews, I wanted to include some MLB league wide data and metrics that are used in those articles. This will serve as a reference for those articles. You might want to access two other articles to understand the full context of all of the information we will be giving you in the next month at LarryTheGM.
This article describes all of the data, including the premium and MoneyMaker content that will become available during the 2024 MLB season. Click on the picture for the link or below.
All of the articles will also be indexed here for easy access. Click on the picture for the link or below.
In this MLB League Season Preview, I will provide you with the league wide data that will be referenced in the Essential Team Season Previews. You might find yourself referencing both as you look at those team previews.
Player Grades
Hitters
In the Essential Team Season Previews, I will be using PLAYER hitter grading scales based on this table.
For example, a player with a projected wRC+ of 90 would be rated a C-.
I show the distribution for players projected to take the plate > 50PA.
I will use this table for the TEAM hitting grades.
Pitchers
I will be using PLAYER pitching grades based on this table.
For example a player with a projected FIP of 4.20 would be rated C+.
I show the distribution for players projected to pitch >20IP.
I will use this table for the TEAM pitching grades.
You will see those grades in the Essential Team Season Previews.
Now, for those who follow the site are familiar with my heatmaps.
MLB Heat Map- MLB WAR Data
This data shows the projected WAR by position. Red is good and Blue is not good. Also included is WAR for all of the position players (including PH, PR) under "Bat" and all of the pitchers under "Pit." These are summed for the total WAR. This total WAR is then used to calculate the projected total wins. The values here are adjusted for total WAR to equal 1000. Data from Fangraphs - 2/17/24.
The lines for each team here will be included in the "Essential Team Season Preview" articles. Here is the Astros data.
The second line shows the rank of each positions projected WAR. This will be used define team strengths and weaknesses.
The league data here can be a little overwhelming, so let's try to compare how the teams rank by batters, pitchers and overall.
The columns to the left are the same as the heatmap data.
The overall team WAR grade is given to make it easier to compare teams. The columns to the right re-sort the grades to show how the teams would project to finish in order. The team names shaded in blue are the teams that would be projected to make the post season. The team WAR grades use this scale.
The rank columns in the middle show how the relative WAR ranks compare. As you can see the Astros project to have the third best offense, the sixth best pitching and rank fourth overall.
When looking forward and using this kind of data, it is the relative ranks that are the most important data.
I thought it might be good to provide a comparison to the 2023 final data so one can see who has really improved and fallen back.
The data here shows the talent teams had. As shown previously on the site, talent does not always translate into wins. The Mariners and Padres should have won more games than they did, and the Marlins should have won less. The Diamondbacks might not even have made it into the Postseason much less won the NLDS.
Generally, projected data tend to normalize results more than the actual results. Again, the relative rank is important. The Astros ranked tenth in 2023 actual WAR, and they are projected to be the fourth best WAR in 2024.
Prospect Data
I will access the prospect data mainly from these sources.
I think the Roster Resource Minor League Power Ranking does a good job of showing players actually ready for the MLB. It does tend to show preference to hitters over pitcher but I will look at both. These are not really prospect rankings as much as they are answering who in the minors can help the team this year rankings.
Currently MLB Pipeline is showing 2023 Top 30 prospect data for each team. We should get the 2024 prospect data in the next month or so.
In the Essential Team Season Previews I would highlight only the MiLB players projected to perform better (by ZiPS projections) than the projected 26-man roster currently in the Fangraphs roster resource listing.
The players from these sources are compared to the two lowest projected hitters and the two lowest projected pitchers from the ZiPS projection data in Fangraphs. Additional players from the organizations MiLB may be considered.
This is what the prospect summary looks like for the Astros.
Again, these sections of the Essential Team Season Previews are not really prospect rankings as much as they are answering who in the minors can help the team this year rankings.
MLB Payrolls
I am adding the payroll numbers here as I will reference them also in the Essential Team Season Previews.
The numbers shown here are the actual payroll numbers. In the Essential Team Season Previews I will also reference the teams CBT payroll number.
I will add more MLB level data to help supplement the Essential Team Season Previews here as needed. At least for now I think we can get started.
You can see what we plan to be doing here in the next month. Maybe you don't see is that I NEED your support to make it happen. The work I do is not easy because I strive to give you good content. To do that I need more support.
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