I hesitate to even write this so let me say I am only doing it because the media keep pushing the narrative that the Mets are trading Verlander. Maybe they are right.
As I did with the Cease and Robert rumor, I am going to show you what I think the trade for Verlander has to look like for the Astros to do it.
Is THIS kind of honest and realistic Astros analysis worth it to you? You can show that below.
First, let me say this. IF one could ignore Verlander's salary for a minute, Verlander would be a perfect fit for what the Astros rotation needs. Yes, he has not been Cy Verlander of his Astros full seasons but let me ask you this:
Would you like to add a pitcher who has a 3.24 ERA (3.94 FIP) who should have plenty of inning in the tank and monthly ERAs are this
May 4.80
June 3.33
July 1.69
Of course, you would.
BUT
We cannot ignore the salary. Verlander is owed
2023 - $43.3M or $15M for the rest of the season
2024 - $43.3M
2025 - $35M (vesting option that becomes a player option at 140 IP in 2024)
The Astros cannot and will not pay that salary. I don't want to reset the entire payroll Armageddon that looms for the 2025 season (when the team has to re-sign Altuve and Bregman and make a decision on Tucker and Valdez). The whole reason the Astros could NOT match this Mets deal, besides the ridiculous $43.3M salary, was the 2025 third year.
What if the Mets were to pay a significant portion of the salary? I mean SIGNIFICANT. Here is what I am thinking:
2023- $5M of the $15M owed - allows them limited CBT space for other moves
2024- $20M
2025- $20M (conditional on the player option being executed)
I can and will craft a Verlander deal under THESE conditions. Would the Mets accept them? Probably not. For the Astros, there are other options and I think JV will demand that IF he is being traded it will be back to the Astros. In other words, I THINK the Astros have the leverage here.
To execute this trade let's agree to give the Mets a Player to be named later IF the 2025 option executes. I would give them a list of 5 lower level highly regard prospects and say the Astros will get to exclude three of them in 18 months.
Therefore, THIS deal is Verlander and $25M in cash for ....
Thoughts?
I don't hate it. I don't love it due to the financial risk. It feels just right, and I do not think the Astros have to nor should they vastly overpay in this scenario.
YES, I KNOW the media is reporting the Rangers are also interested. YES, they could beat this deal. JV has a no trade clause. I don't think he wants to go to yet another new team. Just my opinion.
P.S.- I would like this deal to execute in the morning of 7/30/23 so JV does not start that day and the Mets pay his salary for 7/28 and 7/29. Call me cheap if you want.
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