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Astros ALDS xwOBA Detailed Matchups and Prediction

Updated: Oct 10, 2023

If you follow this website, THIS is the data you are waiting for.

First, please check out the Astros ALDS Guide. You may need to reference the data there as you read this.

Here, I will give you all of the detailed xwOBA matchups of every hitter vs. every pitcher in the Astros ALDS matchup with the Twins. You cannot get this data with the matchups ANYWHERE else.

When you understand this data, you will understand how every batter will matchup with every pitcher.

Astros Hitters vs. Twins Pitching

This is how every Astros batter would PROJECT to do vs. every Twins pitcher based - on the Astros batter ability to hit different pitch types (fastballs, breaking, off-speed)

- the pitcher's ability to throw those pitch types

- the frequency that the pitcher throws that pitch mix

Red here indicates the batter would do better. As a reminder average xwOBA is 0.319.

The column to the right shows how the Astros hitters would do vs. the Twins team on an average calculated by the IP thrown by each pitcher.

At the bottom is the average of each pitcher vs. the STARTERS in the Astros lineup.

In the lower right is the overall average that Astros should hit vs. the entire Twins pitching staff.

Grae Kessinger does not have a sufficient amount of PA in 2022-2023 to warrant the effort to adjust all of the tables, and I would be surprised if he has a huge role.

Best Astros Batters

- Yordan Alvarez- 0.413

- Yainer Diaz- 0.358- IF he gets to play! THIS IS A PROBLEM FOLKS.

- Kyle Tucker- 0.330

- Michael Brantley- 0.322

Best Twins Pitchers

- Pablo Lopez- 0.276

- Brock Stewart- 0.276 (the sample size may be an issue here)

- Jhoan Duran- 0.280

- Griffin Jax- 0.285

Overall Astros projected xwOBA vs. Twins - 0.301. Below Average.

One note, IF Diaz was starting instead of Maldonado the overall average would be 0.317.

Twins Hitters vs. Astros Pitchers

Andrew Stevenson does not have a sufficient amount of PA in 2022-2023 to warrant the effort to adjust all of the tables.

Best Twins Batters

- Royce Lewis- 0.368

- Max Kepler- 0.358

- Matt Wallner- 0.354

- Jorge Polanco- 0.334

- Notice the balance of the Twins

Best Twins Pitchers

- Ryan Pressly- 0.292

- Bryan Abreu- 0.298

- Phil Maton- 0.299

- Justin Verlander- 0.319

Overall Astros projected xwOBA vs. Twins - 0.336. Above Average.


Folks, I have bad news. I don't think the Astros are winning this. I have dug into numbers almost all night.

I think it will be the Twins in 5.

I will add the individual pitcher tables at Patreon. Join to see the daily details.

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