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Astros ALDS Guide

Updated: Oct 10, 2023

This is the follow up to the Astros Postseason guide with detail for the ALDS. We are going to break down the matchup with data you are going to struggle to find anywhere else.


Who are the hitters and pitchers for the Astros and Twins?

How do the hitters and pitchers matchup?


Astros Hitters Roster and Lineup

This data also shows the hitters xwOBA by pitch type vs. LHP and RHP.

Also included are the LGM full season grades based on wRC+.

I also show what I project the batting order for each team will be vs. LHP and RHP.


Twins Hitters Roster and Lineup

My guess is that most Astros fans are unaware that the Twins are THIS good. Solano and Farmer are platoon players for the Twins.


Astros Pitchers Roster and Lineup

This data shows the pitchers pitch mix and xwOBA per pitch type vs. LHH and RHH.

Also included are the LGM full season grades based on FIP.


Twins Pitchers Roster and Lineup

My guess is that most Astros fans are unaware that the Twins are THIS good.


Hitters Matchup

Here are how the two lineups compare.

The Astros added Kessinger and went with 14 hitters. The Astros NEVER worked Dubon much at 3B. They have no real option to finish a game at 3B if Bregman gets hurt.


The Twins starters score BETTER that the Astros:

- 41 to 37 for the year

- 44 to 42 since the All-Star Game

Yes, that IS how good the Twins hitters are.


ALL YEAR, I have been warning about this. IF the Astros would be playing Diaz instead of Maldonado at catcher the batting matchup would be.

- 41 to 40 for the year Twins

- 45 to 42 since the All-Star Game Astros

When I told you this here, I meant it.


The choice at catcher would then determine if the Astros win or lose in the postseason.


I have TRIED to show the world all season long that the Astros NEEDED to play Diaz more. Now, while I do not expect Dusty will start Diaz more than one out of four games this postseason, this decision will likely doom the Astros playoff run.


Pitchers Matchup

This is how the two pitching staffs matchup.

The Astros left Graveman off the ALDS roster and you can see why.

The Twins starting pitching score BETTER that the Astros:

- 18 to 13 for the year

- 14 to 11 since the All-Star Game

The Twins key relief pitching (long and high leverage) score BETTER that the Astros:

- 30 to 25 for the year

- 18 to 16 since the All-Star Game

Yes, that IS how good the Twins pitchers are.


When I told you the Astros pitch implosion could doom them, I meant it.


Who starts what game?

I color coded the pitchers per the grade scale.


It is starting to look tough, isn't it?


How Long Will the SP Last?

Don't expect France to last long. The Twins pitchers appear to get better as the game goes on.


In the postseason preview I showed how the Astros compared to the other AL postseason teams in THREE different time periods.

- full season

- post All-Star game

- after 9/1/23

The Twins have the pitching advantage in EVERY comparison. The Astros have a slight hitting advantage except in September.


Is this due to the relative weakness of the AL Central? I guess we are about to find out.


Folks, this matchup is WAY more difficult than most of you expect.


Next, I will give you all of the detailed xwOBA matchups of every hitter vs. every pitcher. You cannot get this data with the matchups ANYWHERE else.



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