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Astros Postseason Preview - Overview

Updated: Oct 3, 2023

Fifteen (15) minutes after the Astros Season Ends join us as we break down the coming postseason:

- Ben DuBose and Clint TheScout will join me

- Plus YOUR Questions from YouTube!

- Patrons will have the opportunity to join in as well



Per the Content Below we will cover

- Who will make the postseason roster?

- How do the Astros matchup?

- Can the Astros Win It All Again?


The Astros Postseason is here, and let's preview what I THINK will happen this October. It has been a challenging year, but everything starts new on October 3rd. What can the Astros do this October?


Who will make the Postseason Roster?


Pitchers

I think given the challenges of the starting pitching, the Astros are likely to want a 13-man pitching staff in an ALDS or beyond series. I think that means Javier, Urquidy, France and Brown would all be on an ALDS roster. They might tandem start their games.


When we get an ALDS opponent, I will deep dive into the ACTUAL matchup and THAT might impact the pitching staff here. I agree with Dana Brown though that this is probably the staff.


I have added each player's grade per the system we have been using all year.

You can see some of the challenges of the pitching staff.


I THINK the likely ALDS rotation would be this

Javier and France have diverse pitch mixes that would change up well in a postseason game. The same is true for Urquidy and Brown.


The point of these combinations would be to get the Astros to the sixth inning and let the bullpen take over from there.


Here are the starting pitchers' stats by the times through the order.


Position Players

In the three-game series WC, I believe the Astros will carry 14 position players.

I have also supplied what I expect the Astros postseason batting order WILL BE vs. RHP and LHP. Note that I DO NOT think this is what it SHOULD be. Having Diaz sit the entire postseason and only PH is irrational to me. Perhaps he will get a start in the ALDS.

I added the grades here as well based on this grading system.



How do the Astros matchup?


This section WILL be updated with the actual matchup when we have it.


For now, I will show how the six AL postseason teams matchup based on THREE different time periods.

- full season

- post All-Star game

- after 9/1/23


Several teams are like the Astros as their performance has shifted as significantly from the start to the end of the season. The September number is also measure of which teams are "hot".


Let's start with the full season.


For the TEAM grades I am adjusting the scale to meet the intent I set and have some differentiation.

For Batting, I am also going to compare xwOBA and Runs/ Game. I will then rank the six teams based on the average of the three metrics.


For pitching I am also going to consider ERA and Runs/ Game. I will then rank the six teams based on the average of the three metrics.




Full Season


For the year I would pick the Rangers (lowest Rank) as the best offense. The Astros would be tied for second.

For the year I would pick the Rays over the Twins (close) as the best pitching. The Astros would be 5th.


Now let's consider the average of these ranks, the average game run differential and the winning percentage.

This analysis would lead one to believe the Rays are actually the best team in 2023 in the AL.


Since All-Star Game


Since the All-Star Game the ASTROS have had best offense!

Since the All-Star Game the Blue Jays and the Orioles have had the best pitching. The Astros are 5th.

The Twins have the best run differential. The Orioles have the best winning percentage. The Astros would rank the best. In other words, if these three played it would be a crapshoot.


Who's hot- September


In September, the Astros and Twins have hit the best.

In September, The Twins and the Orioles have pitched the best.


Given this you can probably guess the Twins have been the hottest in September.


Let me give you one more aspect to consider.


Who's has the best health? I grade the team's general health currently.

Relative to the other AL teams the Astros are in pretty good health.



Can the Astros Win it all?


The Astros are about to clinch the AL West!! This helps their odds significantly. The pitching needs rest.


The Astros will get the two seed and will NOT have to play in the Wildcard.


They will get the winner of Minnesota and Toronto.


They CAN win it all IF the pitching can step up.


Stay tuned for more analysis.


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