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Astros ALCS Detailed Matchups and Prediction

Updated: Oct 18, 2023

If you follow this website, THIS is the data you are waiting for.

First, please check out the Astros ALCS Guide. You may need to reference the data there as you read this.

Here, I will give you all of the detailed xwOBA matchups of every hitter vs. every pitcher on the Astros ALCS matchups with the Rangers. You cannot get this data with the matchups ANYWHERE else. How do I know that? No one else does this with the xwOBA data.

When you understand this data, you will understand how every batter will matchup with every pitcher.

Astros Hitters vs. Rangers Pitching

This is how every Astros batter would PROJECT to do vs. every Twins pitcher based - on the Astros batter ability to hit different pitch types (fastballs, breaking, off-speed)

- the pitcher's ability to throw those pitch types

- the frequency that the pitcher throws that pitch mix

Red here indicates the batter would do better. As a reminder average xwOBA is 0.319.

The column to the right shows how the Astros hitters would do vs. the Rangers team on an average calculated by the IP thrown by each pitcher.

At the bottom is the average of each pitcher vs. the STARTERS in the Astros lineup.

In the lower right is the overall average that Astros should hit vs. the entire Rangers pitching staff.

Best Astros Batters

- Yordan Alvarez- 0.415

- Kyle Tucker- 0.365

- Yainer Diaz- 0.343 but how much will he play?

- Michael Brantley- 0.338

- With all of the LHP a lot of Astros can do very very well.

- The Astros MIGHT go back this in the core of the lineup to force the Rangers to pitch a LHP to Abreu AND McCormick

- Avarez

- Abreu

- Tucker

- McCormick

- Brantley

Best Rangers Pitchers

- You won't believe me. It's what the NUMBERS say- Will Smith

- Jose Leclerc

- Josh Sborz

Note Heaney, Bradford, and Perez are in trouble. IF Heaney starts, expect the Rangers to go to Dunning and Stratton early.

Overall Astros projected xwOBA vs. Rangers - 0.327. Above Average.

I do want to point out something you may not be expecting. Of the 13 pitchers on the Rangers ALCS roster SIX are LHP. Maldonado is a good option vs. the LHPs like Montgomery. Now we should hope he can stay away from Leclerc, Scherzer, Sborz, Smith, and Stratton.

Rangers Hitters vs. Astros Pitchers

This is where the matchups are a bigger challenge.

The Rangers matchup EXTREMELY well with the RHP heavy Astros staff. As a team they project to a 0.348 xwOBA!

Best Twins Batters

- Corey Seager- 0.419- that's better than Yordan vs. the Twins!

- Adolis Garcia- 0.371

- Mitch Garver- 0.359

- Notice the balance of the Rangers.

Best Astros Pitchers

- Ryan Pressly- 0.308

- Bryan Abreu- 0.307

- Phil Maton- 0.309

- Can the Astros get them in five games in a seven-game series? They may need to.

- I expect France to only be used in mop up duty.


Pain for both pitching staffs. I think Framber reminds us how unhittable he can be when right once in this series. I will also say Scherzer CANNOT come back strong for Game 7. Maybe it is wishful thinking.

I have Houston in 7- barely.

Patreon members get the exclusive data behind these tables. It is amazing to watch a game armed with the understanding how pitch types play a role in each plate appearance. Join to see the daily details. You will see how the matchup data will impact how each pitcher attacks each batter here:

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ALCS Astros detailed matchups

If you missed anything from ALCS Preview Day, here is the list.

#Astros #ALCS Preview Day Continues!

✅Morning- My Astros ALCS Guide - Available at LarryTheGM

✅Mid-day- My Astros ALCS Detailed Matchups and Prediction - Available at LarryTheGM

✅💲Afternoon- ALCS Pitcher - Batter PITCH TYPE Matchup Data- EXCLUSIVE PATREON CONTENT - Available at Patreon

✅Late Afternoon- My YouTube ALCS VIDEO Preview - Available at YouTube

✅Night- Astros ALCS Secret Weapon

I mean what else could you possibly want?


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