Let's break down the ALCS in the next few days in the way that is typical for THIS site- OBJECTIVELY. This is my Astros ALCS Guide.
I am so happy for every baseball fan in Texas. This is special. I grew up ten minutes from old Arlington Stadium. I moved to Houston area in 1987 for my professional career. This state has had great teams. This year there are two AL Baseball Titans. Here is to a great #ALCS!!
Who are the hitters and pitchers for the Astros and Rangers?
How do the hitters and pitchers matchup?
Season and ALDS Team Metrics
These tables tell you that these two 90-72 teams have been statistically tied for the season and both teams hit great and pitched great in their ALDS series.
Astros Hitters Roster and Lineup
This data also shows the hitters xwOBA by pitch type vs. LHP and RHP.
Also included are the LGM full season grades based on wRC+.
The Astros announced Meyers would be off and Kessinger would stay on the ALCS roster.
I also show what I project the batting order for each team will be vs. LHP and RHP.
Rangers Hitters Roster and Lineup
Expect the Rangers to shift their lineup for the Valdez start as shown.
Astros Pitchers Roster and Lineup
This data shows the pitchers pitch mix and xwOBA per pitch type vs. LHH and RHH.
Also included are the LGM full season grades based on FIP.
The Astros announced Blanco as their 13th pitcher. Since the ASG, Blanco has pitched 6 IP for the Astros and 57.1 IP for the Space Cowboys. Blanco did not give up an ER in his last three starts in Sugar Land (17.0 IP) with 23 K. Did the Astros discover something in those three starts?
Rangers Pitchers Roster and Lineup
You can see the Rangers Staff, if healthy, can be better than it has been.
Today the Rangers announced Jon Gray is on the ALCS roster and Brock Burke was off. If Gray is healthy this makes sense.
IF Max Scherzer is available it could make a significant difference. His xwOBAs vs. LHH and RHH are better than his season performance.
The Rangers staff has a lot of LHP. This SHOULD be good for the Astros.
Hitters Matchup
Here are how the two lineups compare.
The Rangers were a great offense in the 1H (117 wRC+). They cooled off some in the 2H (110 wRC+), and you can see who cooled off the most.
For the season these team's starters ended dead even in my grading scale 37 to 37.
ALL YEAR, I have been warning about this. IF the Astros would be playing Diaz instead of Maldonado at catcher the batting matchup would be.
- 40 to 37 for the year Astros advantage
- 45 to 37 since the All-Star Game Astros
I know both teams pitched well in the ALDS. I think the ALCS will more likely be slug fests.
Pitchers Matchup
This is how the two pitching staffs matchup.
The Rangers starting pitching scores BETTER than the Astros:
- 15 to 12 for the year
- 11 to 10 since the All-Star Game
The Rangers key relief pitching (long and high leverage) scores BETTER than the Astros:
- 29 to 27 for the year
- 21 to 17 since the All-Star Game
Neither pitching has been great, and both have had challenges since the ASG.
Notice the Rangers only used nine ALCS pitchers in their five postseason games and one of those for only 0.1 IP. They really limited their exposure to their lesser pitchers so far in the postseason.
This series may come down to which team can avoid a pitching meltdown. It also may come down to how healthy Scherzer and Gray really are.
Who starts what game?
Here is what I THINK the starting rotations will be.
I color coded the pitchers per the grade scale.
It is starting to look tough, isn't it?
How Long Will the SP Last?
Mongomery may not get the full second time through the order.
The Astros need to get Eovaldi early.
Scherzer is the great unknown.
How healthy is Gray?
I really don't know how and if the Rangers use Perez except for mop up duty.
I expect a tough and tight series. For now, I will say I expect a lot of runs.
Now check out the detailed xwOBA matchups of every hitter vs. every pitcher in the Astros ALCS matchups with the Rangers. You cannot get this data with the matchups ANYWHERE else. How do I know that? No one else does this with the xwOBA data.
When you understand this data, you will understand how every batter will matchup with every pitcher.
You cannot get this data with the matchups ANYWHERE else. With that you will get my official prediction too.
Patreon members will get the exclusive pitch type data and the detailed pitcher matchup tables.
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It takes time and it does cost money, I really would appreciate your support of the work. Here is your opportunity to do that at a nominal cost. This support will help me continue to provide you what I do- objective analysis of your teams. It will also help the site improve and expand our reach.
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If you missed anything from ALCS Preview Day, here is the list.
✅Morning- My Astros ALCS Guide - Available at LarryTheGM
https://www.larrythegm.com/post/astros-alcs-guide
✅Mid-day- My Astros ALCS Detailed Matchups and Prediction - Available at LarryTheGM
https://www.larrythegm.com/post/astros-alcs-detailed-matchups-and-prediction
✅💲Afternoon- ALCS Pitcher - Batter PITCH TYPE Matchup Data- EXCLUSIVE PATREON CONTENT - Available at Patreon
https://www.patreon.com/posts/alcs-pitcher-90976780
✅Late Afternoon- My YouTube ALCS VIDEO Preview - Available at YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOyerLOrCCQ
✅Night- Astros ALCS Secret Weapon
https://www.larrythegm.com/post/the-astros-alcs-secret-pitching-weapon
I mean what else could you possibly want?