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Today's Astros Optimal Lineup Analysis- 8/28/23

Updated: Aug 28, 2023

In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.





I had a follower on social media tell me. "Your charts have won me a lot of money." That is not why I put them together but clearly it may help you.


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So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.


Today's pitcher is Chris Sale of the Red Sox. His pitch mix this year has been.

Sale pitch mix

I will label Sale a LH Fastball dominant pitcher. The optimal lineup would be vs. Sale's full pitch mix is.

Optimal lineup

Notice, per this method Abreu is NOT an optimum option vs. Sale's mix but is vs. his Fastball.


TODAY'S LINEUP


This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.

today's lineup

Will the Astros work Sale into Fastball counts? Since, this team is GREAT hitting fastballs that is probably the key.


My other thoughts on today's lineup:

  • It is almost hard to have a bad lineup vs. a LHP right now. August Stats

    • Averaged 5.76 runs per game vs. LHP

    • wRC+128 vs. LHP

    • 0.355 wOBA vs. LHP

    • The Astros are on FIRE vs. LHP right now.

  • It's a LHP with Maldy in the lineup w/ a 0. 379 xwOBA- sneaky good option. Second highest xwOBA today.- In August Maldy has a 295 wRC+ vs. LHP BUT he also has a 0.833 BABIP. Use this information as you see fit.

  • Singleton out will be applauded. May need more of a sample size, but he is a good option for today.

  • Has Abreu fixed his issues vs. Sliders? MAYBE- monitoring this. If he has then he might be the best option.

  • My Optimal lineup projects to a 0.370 xwOBA or 6.3 runs per game. Dusty's lineup is also a very good 0.351 xwOBA or 5.7 runs per game. I will deduct 1 just for my lineup projecting to be better.

Overall, I would rate this lineup a 9.


Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker, Maldy (see above), McCormick

Who might struggle? No one should do bad. Monitoring Abreu vs. breaking pitches.


If you are interested in SPONSORING, the Daily Astros Lineup Analysis- please contact me at larrythegm@gmail.com.


Here is the lineup vs. Sale's pitch mix.

Astos vs. Sale


























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