In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.
I had a follower on social media tell me. "Your charts have won me a lot of money." That is not why I put them together but clearly it may help you.
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So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.
Today's pitcher is Alex Faedo for the Tigers. His pitch mix this year has been.
Faedo is one of those pitchers I described in the optimal Astros lineup article as hard to classify in my labels of dominant pitch type. The Astros will want to dig into the pitch to LHH/RHH data. For our purposes today I will label Faedo a RH Breaking dominant pitcher, but I am going to define optimal based on the table at the bottom - the overall xwOBA vs. Faedo's pitch mix. The optimal lineup would be.
Notice, per this method Abreu is NOT an optimum option.
TODAY'S LINEUP
This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.
Faedo has three pitches, and the slider is the most dominant (37%). Will Faedo pitch more sliders vs. the Astros today? He probably should. The overall predicted lineup probably depends on the percentage of sliders thrown today.
My other thoughts on today's lineup:
It's a RHP with Maldy in the lineup w/ a 0.227 xwOBA- minus 2
NOT finding a way to get Diaz (0,383) into this lineup is managerial malpractice- minus 2
Sitting Abreu (0.280) and using Singleton (0.333) is the right call but how will Singleton do vs. Faedo's slider (small JS sample size)- plus 0.5
Dubon (0.287) vs. Meyers (0.287) is a wash offensively. Ideally it would be Julks (0.307) but no one wants to believe that.
Hope that the Astros can work Faedo into fastballs.
Overall, I would rate this lineup a 6.5. Maybe they get to a LHRP.
The xwOBA for the lineup is a very MLB average 0.329 vs. the optimal o.348- not great.
Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker and Alvarez.
Who might struggle? Maldy of course. MAYBE they keep a LHRP in for him.
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Here is the lineup vs. Faedo's pitch mix.
