In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.
ICYMI yesterday- Abreu is BACK!?!?!? Read my thoughts on that here.
I had a follower on social media tell me. "Your charts have won me a lot of money." That is not why I put them together but clearly it may help you. If you use it for that purpose, at least support the site at Patreon.
So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.
Today's pitcher is Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. His pitch mix this year has been.
Bello is one of those pitchers I described in the optimal Astros lineup article as hard to classify in my labels of dominant pitch type. The Astros will want to dig into the pitch to LHH/RHH data. For our purposes today I will label Bello a RH Fastball dominant pitcher, but I am going to define optimal based on the table at the bottom - the overall xwOBA vs. Bello's pitch mix. The optimal lineup would be.
Notice, per this method Abreu is NOT an optimum option. Julks IS an optimal option over Meyers.
TODAY'S LINEUP
This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.
Look Familiar? Yes that is because it is the OPTIMAL LINEUP vs. Bello's pitch mix.
Today's #Astros lineup vs. an RHP is likely their best this entire season.
My other thoughts on today's lineup:
How can Alvarez be available to start 15 hours after he is available to PH? Rant is below.
Good choice with Singleton over Abreu. Abreu was not going to play in the back-to-back anyway, BUT do you want Abreu's xwOBA of 0.293 vs. an RHP? I would MUCH rather let Singleton (LHH) face the RHP.
Good choice with Julks over Meyers. He is better vs. fastballs from RHP. However, Julks will need to work to get the FB. He might go up to the plate guessing Changeup.
Overall, I would rate this lineup a 9.5. I docked 0.5 because I do not know the REAL story on Alvarez, and Dusty lies so much one is left to guess.
The xwOBA for the lineup is 0.360. Could be a hit fest.
Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker and Diaz. Should include Alvarez but you know.
Who might struggle? No one should do badly.
Rant
I for one am tired of Dusty:
1. outright lying about player's health
2. pontificating uninformedly about player's health
3. saying he can't say anything about player's health
No, Dusty. You can tell the truth.
Either the Astros have the worst athletic training staff in all of baseball, or this team lies nonstop about the condition of its players.
Abreu CANNOT have a bad back for most of the season and have a miracle cure that allows him to skip a rehab assignment after only two weeks of rest.
IF he was able to recover in two weeks, why didn't the team deploy the miracle cure in May?
IF the back was just an excuse to go on the IL to fix his swing, then why didn't you do THAT in May?
Alvarez CANNOT be unavailable for a single PH in extra innings 15 hours before he is inserted into the STARTING LINEUP the next day.
Yes, we ALL KNOW that Dusty has the wait an extra day rule. Dusty cannot wait an extra day to be retired.
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Here is the lineup vs. Bello's pitch mix.
