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Writer's pictureLarryTheGM

MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/21/24

This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.


My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/21/24- Astros vs. Nationals.


I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.


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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.

Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.


Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.



https://www.larrythegm.com/post/premium-astros-series-guide-data-4-19-4-21

You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- 4/19- 4/21 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.


The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data

This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.

We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.


Starting for the Astros- Hunter Brown vs. the Nationals

Per the Astros Twitter Account

Javier has neck discomfort

·

RHP Cristian Javier has been scratched from today’s start due to neck discomfort…RHP Hunter Brown will start in his place.


Hunter Brown gets the Start. His 0.481 BABIP would indicate he has been extremely unlucky. His 6.67 FIP vs. 10.54 ERA would also indicate a large luck component. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.402 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.315.

What will the Astros get from Hunter Brown today? Guesses anyone?


Hunter Brown SHOULD do well. That's all I will say. The Nationals project as a team to hit 0.295 xwOBA.

The Nationals best bet fantasy stars today are: NONE


The runs model would project the Nationals to score 3.9 runs today if Brown was in the game for 9 innings.

I would not bet anything here.


Starting for the Nationals- Mitchell Parker vs. the Astros

Mitchell Parker is a rookie with one start. He has had 14.1 IP in AAA TOTAL. I applied his AAA pitch allocation below.


I don't trust any of this for real predictions.

Just go with the given. The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:


  • Alvarez - over 1.5 total bases- (-110 on Bovada)

  • Tucker - over 1.5 total bases- (-105 on Bovada)


Let's have fun today Astros fans.

Locked


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