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MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/2/24

This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.


My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/2/24- Astros vs. Blue Jays.


I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.


I will give you a short video preview at 6:00PM to cover this Daily Lineup Analysis.


Join here:



Follow my X account at @larrythegmman for real takes. Watch the Astros break out today. That's baseball.

Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.


Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.


Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.


IF you want the opportunity to get this data everyday sign up at one of these two links.


https://www.larrythegm.com/post/premium-astros-series-guide-data-blue-jays-4-1-4-3

You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Blue Jays 4/1- 4/3 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.


The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data


This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.


We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.


Well, last night we did not see a Blanco no-hitter coming. We did see THIS:


  • "I expect we will see Blanco depend on his Breaking and Offspeed pitches more."

  • "Blanco has been great this spring, far better than his 2023. He seems to have thrown less fastballs, but Spring Training data is too small a sample size and is often incomplete. "

  • He relied less on the fastball last night with a TON more changeups.


You are not wasting your time here folks.





Starting for the Astros- Framber Valdez vs. the Blue Jays

Today the Astros go with Valdez.

Last Start- Framber struggled in his first start and gave up 3 ER in 4.1 IP. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.386 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.320. I say it will get better than game 1 and here is why.

Valdez vs. Blue Jays

This lineup has a 0.348 xwOBA matchup vs. Valdez. This is challenging for the Astros.


Some of the Blue Jays stars should have big days.

  • Bichette 0.437 - over 1.5 total bases (+115 on Bovada)

  • Guerrero Jr. 0.370 - over 1.5 total bases (+135 on Bovada)

  • Turner 0.398 - over 1.5 total bases (+130 on Bovada)

  • Schneider 0.410 - over 0.5 total hits (-145 on Bovada)

These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Blue Jays.


The runs model would project them to score 5.6 runs today if Valdez was in the game for 9 innings.


I would stay away from a pitching bet on Valdez.


Starting for the Blue Jays- José Berríos vs. the Astros


Last start- José Berríos gave up 2 ER in 6.0 IP. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.308 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.325. I say he will not be as successful tonight and here is why.

Berrios vs. Astros

Overall, the Astros team has a 0.348 xwOBA matchup vs. Berrios. This would be good for Astros fans.


I would stay away from a bet on Berrios.


The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:

  • Alvarez 0.485 - over 1.5 total bases- (-105 on Bovada)

  • Tucker 0.400 - over 1.5 total bases- (+130 on Bovada)

  • Diaz 0.379 - over 1.5 total bases- (+120 on Bovada)


I am so confident in Alvarez, I would be tempted by these possibilities too.

  • Player to Hit a Home Run in the game- (+500)

  • Total Hits- (-210)

  • Player to record an RBI (+145)


Alvarez is so overdue. I am going to do the Crazy thing and say he hits a Home Run tonight.


The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.6 runs today if Berrios was in the game for 9 innings.


Let's have more fun tonight Astros fans.




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