This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/1/24- Astros vs. Blue Jays.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Blue Jays 4/1- 4/3 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
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The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Ronel Blanco vs. the Blue Jays
Today the Astros go with Blanco. Blanco and his 0.280 BABIP were lucky to pitch to a 4.50 ERA last year. His FIP was a far worse 5.9. Blanco's xwOBA fastball data is quite concerning. I expect we will see Blanco depend on his Breaking and Offspeed pitches more.
This lineup has a 0.350 xwOBA matchup vs. Blanco. This is challenging for the Astros.
Blanco has been great this spring, far better than his 2023. He seems to have thrown less fastballs, but Spring Training data is too small a sample size and is often incomplete.
I am not sure what Blanco will bring. I am NOT telling you to bet against him here. I am just saying stay away for a few starts.
Some of the Blue Jays stars should have big days.
Clement 0.412 (Do you trust the small sample size? The Blue Jays seem to.) I do not see odds on Bovada. If you can find any, go for it ESPECIALLY if you can take over 0.5 total bases.
Guerrero Jr. 0.387 - over 1.5 total bases (-110 on Bovada)
Daulton Varsho 0.348 - over 1.5 Total Hits, Runs And RBI's (-125 on Bovada)
These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Blue Jays.
The runs model would project them to score 5.6 runs today if Blanco was in the game for 9 innings. The bullpen is limited with no Abreu and no Hader.
Folks, it looks pretty bleak for the Astros pitching AGAIN.
Starting for the Blue Jays- Bowden Francis vs. the Astros
Bowden Francis is making his first MLB Start 21 days before turning 28. He pitched 36.1 innings of 1.73 ERA and 3.86 FIP long relief last year. He has apparently a dominant curve ball that was almost unhittable by RHH last year.
Folks, the data set here is a challenge for Francis. His innings are limited, he pitch data is limited (253 pitches to RHH and 286 pitches to LHH), and there are inconsistencies with his MiLB data from last year. There are massive wOBA gaps (they show he should have been worse.) The only thing I think I know is that Francis has a GREAT curve ball vs. RHH. The truth is Francis is a pitcher we need more data on to do this type of analysis.
This Spring Training Francis adopted a split finger fastball. That isn't in the 2023 data set.
For Francis I changed the table to show the MASSIVE differences in the effectiveness of his slider and his curveball.
The only thing I think I know about today is that the LHH Alvarez and Tucker are a much better matchup for the Astros then maybe any of the RHH IF THIS DATA SET IS REAL. I don't know that it is, and I don't know if we actually see splitters tonight.
Overall, if we believe the dataset, the Astros team has a 0.296 xwOBA matchup vs. Francis. This would not be good.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 3.9 runs today if Francis was in the game for 9 innings.
This will be fun to watch to see how wrong the model might be here, or it could be a really rough night to be an Astros fan if it is right.