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MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/1/24

This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.


My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/1/24- Astros vs. Blue Jays.


I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.


I will give you a short video preview at 6:00PM to cover this Daily Lineup Analysis.


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Follow my X account at @larrythegmman for real takes. Watch the Astros break out today. That's baseball.

Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.


Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.


Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.


IF you want the opportunity to get this data everyday sign up at one of these two links.


https://www.larrythegm.com/post/premium-astros-series-guide-data-blue-jays-4-1-4-3

You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Blue Jays 4/1- 4/3 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.


I will be BACK at 7:00PM for a watch party where I will talk through how the Premium and MoneyMaker data can be used to revolutionize how you watch a baseball game.


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The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data


This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.


We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.


Starting for the Astros- Ronel Blanco vs. the Blue Jays

Today the Astros go with Blanco. Blanco and his 0.280 BABIP were lucky to pitch to a 4.50 ERA last year. His FIP was a far worse 5.9. Blanco's xwOBA fastball data is quite concerning. I expect we will see Blanco depend on his Breaking and Offspeed pitches more.

Blanco vs. Blue Jays

This lineup has a 0.350 xwOBA matchup vs. Blanco. This is challenging for the Astros.

Blanco has been great this spring, far better than his 2023. He seems to have thrown less fastballs, but Spring Training data is too small a sample size and is often incomplete.


I am not sure what Blanco will bring. I am NOT telling you to bet against him here. I am just saying stay away for a few starts.


Some of the Blue Jays stars should have big days.

  • Clement 0.412 (Do you trust the small sample size? The Blue Jays seem to.) I do not see odds on Bovada. If you can find any, go for it ESPECIALLY if you can take over 0.5 total bases.

  • Guerrero Jr. 0.387 - over 1.5 total bases (-110 on Bovada)

  • Daulton Varsho 0.348 - over 1.5 Total Hits, Runs And RBI's (-125 on Bovada)

These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Blue Jays.


The runs model would project them to score 5.6 runs today if Blanco was in the game for 9 innings. The bullpen is limited with no Abreu and no Hader.


Folks, it looks pretty bleak for the Astros pitching AGAIN.


Starting for the Blue Jays- Bowden Francis vs. the Astros


Bowden Francis is making his first MLB Start 21 days before turning 28. He pitched 36.1 innings of 1.73 ERA and 3.86 FIP long relief last year. He has apparently a dominant curve ball that was almost unhittable by RHH last year.


Folks, the data set here is a challenge for Francis. His innings are limited, he pitch data is limited (253 pitches to RHH and 286 pitches to LHH), and there are inconsistencies with his MiLB data from last year. There are massive wOBA gaps (they show he should have been worse.) The only thing I think I know is that Francis has a GREAT curve ball vs. RHH. The truth is Francis is a pitcher we need more data on to do this type of analysis.


This Spring Training Francis adopted a split finger fastball. That isn't in the 2023 data set.


For Francis I changed the table to show the MASSIVE differences in the effectiveness of his slider and his curveball.

Francis vs. Astros

The only thing I think I know about today is that the LHH Alvarez and Tucker are a much better matchup for the Astros then maybe any of the RHH IF THIS DATA SET IS REAL. I don't know that it is, and I don't know if we actually see splitters tonight.


Overall, if we believe the dataset, the Astros team has a 0.296 xwOBA matchup vs. Francis. This would not be good.


The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:

  • Alvarez 0.449 - over 1.5 total bases- (-125 on Bovada)

  • Tucker 0.374 - over 1.5 total bases- (+105 on Bovada)


The runs model would project the Astros to score 3.9 runs today if Francis was in the game for 9 innings.


This will be fun to watch to see how wrong the model might be here, or it could be a really rough night to be an Astros fan if it is right.




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