Astros ALCS Game 3 By The Numbers Watch With Larry Event
I am going to provide data and analysis based on the xwOBA detailed matchup data.
I will not be showing the game but data from the site.
Turn on the game and get your laptop going with this event. - In my Twitter feed you will see this play - In Twitter Spaces you will have the option to join AND CHAT - Patrons have the option to join the event - signup to join
- On YouTube you can join and chat there
Here are the lineups and how they project vs. today's starting pitching.
First here are the Astros vs. Scherzer in the lineup announced for tonight.
What do you all think of the lineup? It has a projected xwOBA of 0.300- 4.0 runs per game. This is worse than it was for Game 1 and Game 2.
I was asked what I thought would be the ideal lineup.
My lineup would be the lineup on the right. which has an xwOBA of 0.316 (4.5 runs per game).
Either way Scherzer is a tough matchup for the Astros IF he is healthy and at full strength. One question is how long he will go tonight. The Rangers have Gray (0.338), Dunning (0.346), Heaney (0.363), Perez (0.369), and Bradford (0.377) all available as long relief but as you see all are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than a healthy Scherzer. One of those five is also the Rangers Game 4 starter.
In essence, if you could tell me how long Scherzer goes, I can tell you how well the Astros offense should do.
This lineup gets a 6.5 because the Astros are leaving their third best bat vs. Scherzer on the bench.
I understand thinking Dubon over McCormick but I don't agree with it.
MVP Tonight- Yordan Alvarez
Here are the Rangers vs. Javier
The Rangers made some adjustments to their normal lineup vs. RHP. Chandler Rome discussed on Twitter that this may be an attempt to help the running game and I agree.
Overall, their lineup projects to a 0.361 vs. Javier.
The Javier numbers are built on season statistics (0.325 xwOBA- 2969 pitches). Since 9/1 and including the ALDS, Javier has been SIGNIFICANTLY better over seven starts (0.270 xwOBA- 608 pitches). Since 9/20 and including the ALDS, Javier has been EVEN better over four starts (0.250 xwOBA- 349 pitches).
Either one of those two late season numbers would be the best in the league if sustained over a season where the SP threw more than 2000 pitches.
So which Javier is going to show up in Arlington? If you tell me that I would adjust the numbers. Here is what it would look like with only the 608 pitches since 9/1.
That is the old Javier we remember from last year. If we get THAT Javier the Astros can win.
The Rangers lineup gets an 8 from me.
So, who wins?
So, the game comes down to:
- Is Scherzer healthy and how long does he last?
- Can the Astros get to the middle relief?
- Will September/ October Javier keep rolling?
I HAVE to pick the Astros. I can't watch another loss.
Support the Site
Do you want to support this site? Do you want to make sure you continue to get real analysis like this?
It takes time and it does cost money, I really would appreciate your support of the work. Here is your opportunity to do that at a nominal cost. This support will help me continue to provide you what I do- objective analysis of your teams. It will also help the site improve and expand our reach.
If you don't think our work is worthy of financial support, I will accept your non-action feedback humbly.
The details are available at Patreon.com. It is VERY easy to sign up.