Some of the best article ideas come from you all- The subscribers of LarryTheGM and my friends on Twitter. We discussed this topic on YouTube. You can follow along as you read this. Please subscribe to the YouTube channel and like this video too.
This article is one of them. One of my favorite people on Twitter- Ben Dubose (@BenDuBose) and I were talking and he said this
"What I’m most curious about .... is Philly’s bullpen success from the first two games and how their depth matches up with us. It feels a bit flukey to me..."
The Phillies relief pitching in the first two games has been GREAT
Game 1 - 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 SO, 0 R, 0 ER
Game 2 - 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0 R, 0 ER
Is this sustainable and if not what SHOULD we expect?
Let's discuss the Postseason in general for a minute. Managers in the postseason are EXTREMELY focused on getting the BEST matchups and having pitchers and catchers throw the best options. THIS is why I wrote the matchup guide the way I did.
As a reminder the Astros went for 5 ER over 17.1 IP against the Yankees bullpen. Thats a 2.60 ERA which is REALLY good for the Yankees.
In short, no it is not sustainable. The Astros match up better against the Phillies bullpen than they did against the Yankees in the ALCS. Here is how the matchup predictions lineup the two bullpens vs. the Astros.
The top 5 in the Yankees bullpen projected to hold the Astros to 0.280 xwOBA. This translates to roughly a 0.289 OBP/ 0.346 SLG/ 0.635 OPS. I submitted this stat line in the the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. That tool tells me a lineup full of those players would be predicted to score 3.22 runs per game.
The top 5 in the Phillies bullpen project to hold the Astros to 0.291 xwOBA. This translates to roughly a 0.297 OBP/ 0.364 SLG/ 0.661 OPS. I submitted this stat line in the the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. That tool tells me a lineup full of those players would be predicted to score 3.54 runs per game.
If the Yankees gave up 2.60 runs per game (0.29 runs per inning), while being projected to give up 3.22 runs per game (0.36 runs per inning), one might expect the Phillies bullpen projected to give up 3.54 runs per game (0.39 runs per inning) to give up at least 2.86 runs per game (0.32 runs per inning).
In short that Phillies bullpen should give up 0.3-0.4 runs per inning and about at least one run per game. Since that bullpen has already pitched 8.2 innings, they already owe the Astros three runs. Not really, but runs ARE coming.
If the Phillies use the rest of the bullpen expect another 20-33% more runs per inning.
Before you go PLEASE check out the World Series Matchup Guide.
The statistics referenced here come from baseballsavant.mlb.com and Fangraphs.com.
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