Why I LOVE the Astros Mancini Trade

June 9th- That is the day I wrote THIS Article.


https://www.larrythegm.com/post/what-the-astros-should-really-do-at-first-base


Near the end of that article I wrote this VERY simple and yet clear sentence.


"If it were up to me, I would trade for Mancini."


Astros fans, THIS is why I am here. This is why I PAY for this website to give you THIS kind of analysis. I do it because others distracted you with insane trade proposals that one or both teams would never accept. For my analysis I looked at EVERY possible 1B option and gave you the real targets


So who is Trey Mancini?


Statistically

2022/ Career

Avg 0.268/ 0.270

OBP 0.346/ 0.334

SLG 0.403/ 0.463

OPS 0.749/ 0.797

K% 21.4%/ 22.8%

BB% 8.7%/ 7.7%

wRC+ 113/ 113

wOBA 0.329/ 0.339

xwOBA 0.347/

DRS-1B 2/ 1

DRS=OF 2/ -11


He is a VERY good batter. His power this year has been negatively impacted by adjustments the franchise made in the ballpark last year. He is going to benefit dramatically from the Crawford Boxes. Many projection systems indicate that Mancini would have between 18-20 HR this year IF he had been playing his home games at Minute Maid Park. His SLG would currently be more like 0.445 this year. If his OPS would really be ~0.790 this year with simply the ballpark change, this would make him the THIRD highest OPS on the Astros team whose OPS is 0.739.


For those worried about Mancini defensively, he has +2 DRS at 1B this year. For comparison, Gurriel is -2 DRS. At 1B, Mancini UZR/150 +3.6 and Gurriel UZR/150 -1.0. I am not claiming Mancini is a GREAT 1B defensively, just that he is not as bad as you may think.


The website BaseballTradeValues.com says that Astros slightly overpaid for the rental Mancini. Per their values, the Astros sent Jose Siri (5.0) to the Rays and Chase McDermott (2.2) to the Orioles. With Mancini (1.9) they received Jayden Murray (1.9) from the Rays. Murray is a SP that is considered now to be a top 30 Astros prospect (FG has at 9) and was sent to AA. Murray will need to be added to the 40-man roster in December to protect him from the Rule 5 draft (the same was true for McDermott.)


Given the potential for Mancini to rake at MMP, I love this deal. As I show in how I would set the lineup here, I think Mancini will quickly become an EXTREMELY valuable member of the lineup. Mancini has a mutual option for 2023. I suspect if he made the decision today Mancini would decline the option and test the free agent market. If he does perform well, let's hope the Astros can resign him.


I give this deal an A.


Read about the Vazquez trade here


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