Uncover the enigma of Rafael Montero - from early promise to recent struggles, find out who he truly is and if a comeback is on the cards. Who is the Real Rafael Montero?
Rafael Montero is not going away.
Per Brian McTaggart on X:
Apparently, Montero is under consideration for a September call up. He was TERRIBLE for the Astros. Why would the Astros even consider this?
This issue can be summarized by one question. Who is the REAL Rafael Montero?
To answer that, let's take a journey back in time. I think Montero's career is best framed in three eras:
Early career as a starter / Pre- Tommy John - 2014- 2017
Post- Tommy John Career as RP - 2019 -2022
Post Big Contract Early Aging Effects - 2023 -2024
Here is Montero's high-level career statistically:
The early career time period when Montero was being developed as a starter is somewhat irrelevant to the post Tommy John surgery Montero story.
Montero had TJ is 2018 and returned to the MLB in mid 2019.
Welcome to the Post- Tommy John Career as RP - 2019 -2022.
Then, 2020 was the COVID year. Between 2018 and 2019, Montero had basically one season. Therefore, 2021 was the first real full season that Montero was deployed as a relief pitcher. Montero was so bad in 2021 that the Mariners DFAed him and then threw him in as an adder in the Graveman trade.
The 2021 season was probably NOT as bad as we thought as illustrated by:
his 3.86 FIP vs. 6.39 ERA
his unsustainably 0.350 BABIP
his better than average 0.289 xwOBA
Then 2022 happened and Montero had a career season.
2.37 ERA / 2.64 FIP
1.5 WAR
0.257 xwOBA
14 saves
There were warning signs though even in the context of that season
0.260 BABIP (probably too low)
0.4 HR/9 - FAR below the rest of his career. Was it just luck? (76 of 771 RP 2021-2024 with more than 40 IP in a season)
Overall, the three seasons of play from 2019 - 2022 provided hope of Montero as a relief pitcher. Had he just found his role at 31 years old? His combined stats as a focused relief pitcher were good.
3.78 ERA / 3.33 FIP
0.285 xwOBA
0.291 BABIP
2.79 BB/9 - good
9.2 K/9 - good
From 2019 to 2022 Montero accumulated 2.5 WAR. Among RP this was 30th among 98 with more than 150 IP in that period. He was good.
What is the 30th RP in the MLB worth? Ryan Pressly was making $10M AAV and was 2nd on this list with 6.0 WAR.
Somehow to Jim Crane the 32-year-old Montero was worth $11.5M AAV for 3 years.
It was a bad decision.
Welcome to the Post Big Contract Early Aging Effects - 2023 -2024.
2023 was a rough year for Montero
5.08 ERA / 4.46 FIP
0.324 xwOBA vs. LHH / 0.334 xwOBA vs. RHH
3.88 BB/9 - worse than league average
0.358 BABIP - this MIGHT have been a sign of hope. This was unsustainably bad. It should have gotten better.
2024 was arguably worse before Montero was DFAed on 7/31/24 and eventually accepted an assignment to AAA.
4.70 ERA / 6.40 FIP
0.397 xwOBA vs. LHH (TERRIBLE)/ 0.335 xwOBA vs. RHH
4.46 BB/9 - terrible (182 / 221 RP > 30 IP)
5.40 K/9 - HORRIBLE (219 /221 RP > 30 IP)
1.88 HR/9 - HORRIBLE (214 /221 RP > 30 IP)
0.243 BABIP - he has been LUCKY to be this bad
You are probably thinking "I know all of that! Why are you reminding me? WHY is that Montero even being considered for a September call up?"
If you are thinking that I have done my job to this point.
The question is "Who is the Real Rafael Montero?"
the 2019-2022 RP who was arguably good
the 2023-2024 RP who was arguably disastrous
Is it aging? He is 33. The aging curve is undefeated but is 33 too old for someone with only 462 IP?
Is it bad luck? His luck was bad in 2023, but one could argue he has worse in 2024 with good luck.
Could the Astros fix Montero with pitch mix adjustments? AH. There it is. The Astros RP fixing program.
Have the Astros made adjustments with Montero in AAA?
Did you see the AAA stat line above? It is SIX innings but...
0.00 ERA / -0.30 FIP (yes negative- it is a quirk in the FIP formula)
0.141 xwOBA vs. LHH / 0.147 xwOBA vs. RHH
1.50 BB/9
21.00 K/9
0.00 HR/9
This data is too good to be true right? Did they find something?
Here is Montero's pitch distribution in the great 2022 season, the bad 2023- 2024 seasons, and what he has done in AAA this month.
Disclaimer- the AAA sample is too small, but I will boldly ignore that. The distribution of pitches is probably more interesting than the results.
vs. LHH
in 2022 Montero was a two-pitch pitcher basically - 4-seam and changeup
in 2023 Montero added sliders to the mix. Why? The 4-seamer was far less effective
in 2024 Montero added sinkers to the mix. Why? The sliders were being killed and everything sucked.
in AAA Montero has generally gone back to the basics of just 4-seamers and changeups with more changeups.
Optimally, Montero probably should stick mainly to the two-pitch plan- 4-seamers and changeups. Either it is good enough or it isn't and move on.
vs. RHH
in 2022 Montero was a three-pitch pitcher basically - 4-seam, sinkers, and sliders. All were effective.
in 2023 Montero went to more 4-seamers because the other pitches were getting hammered.
in 2024 Montero basically became a two-pitch pitcher 4-seamer and sinkers. The other pitches were terrible.
in AAA Montero has generally tried all four pitches. The slider has not been good. The Changeup sample is probably too small.
Optimally, Montero probably should stick mainly to the two-pitch plan- 4-seamers and sinkers. Work the other pitches in only against vulnerable batters.
Is the AAA, sample give you hope? It appears to be giving the Astros hope, and THAT is why they are open to trying Montero in September. I don't have a strong opinion other than IF they do bring Montero back, they need to guide more towards the optimal pitch mix discussed.
The Astros might hope Montero can relieve some of the innings pressure on others in the bullpen.
So, who is the real Rafael Montero? Astros fan may still have one more opportunity to find out even if they don't want it.
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