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Tonight's Astros Lineup Optimal Analysis- 8/12/23


Tell me what you think about this data. If this is something you want, I will put these out shortly after the lineups are announced.

In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.

So tonight, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made tonight.

Tonight's pitcher is - Tyler Anderson for the Angels. His pitch mix this year has been.

Anderson profile

Therefore, Anderson is a LH Off-speed Pitch Dominant Pitcher. This is an overall challenging pitcher type for the Astros team. The optimal lineup would be.

Astros optimal lineup

Tonight, Abreu is unavailable.


This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.

Today's Astros Lineup

Because of the way Dusty manages the catcher- pitcher relationships, today is a Diaz day at catcher. I am ALWAYS in favor of Diaz playing. Oddly in my PT usage paradigm today would be a day to have Maldy and his 0.406 xwOBA catch and have Diaz and Singleton cover 1B and DH.

If Dubon is healthy he should probably start over Pena today.

Having both Mayers and McCormick play vs. one of their least favorable matchups is suboptimal. Having Dubon play CF after him crashing into the wall last night is probably less favorable.

The xwOBA data vs. LHP is probably far from stable. For this reason, I will not criticize this lineup- one I think most of us would prefer to see almost every day. It is just a quirk of deploying THIS lineup vs. LHSP that is off-speed pitch dominant that gives me some concern.

I will also say this. Anderson throws MAINLY fastballs. His off-speed changeup is his most EFFECTIVE. IF Anderson CANNOT control his off-speed pitch, the Astros will FEAST on his fastball.

Since the Astros are choosing to start 3 suboptimal players tonight but they would rake vs. Anderson's fastball, I will rate this lineup an 8.

Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker and/or Diaz

Who might struggle? I am going to go with the Astros can stay away from the changeup and everyone rakes today.

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