In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.
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So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.
It is a HUGE series. Read more here.
Today's pitcher is Max Scherzer of the Rangers. His pitch mix this year has been.
Scherzer is a RH Fastball dominant pitcher. The optimal lineup would be.
The lineup choices are going to be more challenging since there are several good options every night.
This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.
My thoughts on today's lineup:
This is going to feel like yesterday. The difference is the SP is not coming from the IL and is not on the pitch count.
I know why he did it, but Dusty has to stop this catcher goes with this pitcher immediately.
Maldonado is a xwOBA 0.233 hitter vs. RHP with this pitch mix- minus 2 AGAIN
Diaz is a xwOBA 0.404 hitter vs. this pitch mix. That would be the SECOND most productive bat and he is sitting- minus 1
Moving Pena to 2 is bold. I do not love this vs. Scherzer- minus 0.5
Putting Bregman in between Alvarez and Tucker when he is hot is probably the right move vs. all of the LHRP the Rangers have- PLUS o.5
I think the Astros NEED to give Abreu more rest and I will show you in an article soon. Starting for the sixth game in a row is not optimal- minus 0.25
I KNOW and I will show soon that McCormick has been scuffling but its not a good idea to sit him here in a lineup projected to struggle- minus 0.5
My Optimal lineup projects to a 0.356 xwOBA or 5.8 runs per game. Dusty's lineup is a mediocre 0.329 xwOBA or 5.0 runs per game. I will deduct 1 just for my lineup projecting to be better. 0.8 runs per game is very significant to choose to not go after.
Overall, I would rate this lineup a 5.25. Hang over after the run party? I am concerned yes.
Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker and Alvarez
NEW TONIGHT- SNEAK PEAK
Astros PITCHING vs. Opponent lineups!
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Today will be a sneak peak that can be visible to the public on the Patreon site.
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Here is the lineup vs. Scherzer's pitch mix.