In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.
I had a follower on social media tell me. "Your charts have won me a lot of money." That is not why I put the Astros Optimal Lineups together, but clearly it may help you.
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So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.
Today's pitcher is Eduardo Rodriguez for the Tigers. His pitch mix this year has been.
For our purposes today I will label Rodriguez a LH Fastball dominant pitcher, The optimal lineup would be.
TODAY'S LINEUP
This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.
Again, vs. a LHP the options are good.
The Astros have a 169 wRC+ vs. LHP in August. That is the second highest month vs. LHP in the MLB this year.
My other thoughts on today's lineup:
Vs. LHP Fastball Meyers is the call. Vs. Rodriguez's pitch mix specifically, Maldy might be a slight advantage. Maldy vs. Breaking and Off-speed is unsustainably high so I will align with Meyers today.
Is Abreu fixed/ healthy? Good opportunity to find out.
Overall, I would rate this lineup a 9- maybe higher?
The xwOBA for the lineup is a good 0.355. Plan accordingly.
Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker and McCormick
Who might struggle? All should be OK. Meyers least likely to rake.
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Here is the lineup vs. Rodriguez's pitch mix.
