In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.
I had a follower on social media tell me. "Your charts have won me a lot of money." That is not why I put them together but clearly it may help you. Not Yesterday! You win some and you lose some folks. What we are trying to do here is not easy.
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So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.
Today's pitcher is Matt Manning for the Tigers. His pitch mix this year has been.
Manning is one of those pitchers I described in the optimal Astros lineup article as hard to classify in my labels of dominant pitch type. The Astros will want to dig into the pitch to LHH/RHH data. For our purposes today I will label Bello a RH Breaking dominant pitcher, but I am going to define optimal based on the table at the bottom - the overall xwOBA vs. Manning's pitch mix. The optimal lineup would be.
Notice, per this method Abreu is NOT an optimum option.
This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.
My other thoughts on today's lineup:
It's a RHP with Maldy in the lineup w/ a 0.230 xwOBA- minus 2
RHH Abreu (is he fixed?) and his 0.281 xwOBA over LHH Singleton- minus 1
The top of the lineup NEEDS to produce tonight.
Hope that the Astros can work Manning into fastballs.
Overall, I would rate this lineup a 6.5.
The xwOBA for the lineup is a very MLB average 0.330 vs. the optimal o.346- not great.
Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker and Alvarez.
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Here is the lineup vs. Manning's pitch mix.