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Today's Astros Optimal Lineup Analysis- 8/21/23

In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.

So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.

Today's pitcher is - James Paxton for the Red Sox. His pitch mix this year has been.

Paxton is a LH Fastball Dominant pitcher. The optimal lineup would be.

Abreu is on the IL

At the bottom I also added the table that projects vs. Paxton's pitch mix.


This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.

My thoughts on today's lineup:

  1. Did you compare? You should. Dusty is using the optimal lineup available.

  2. Paxton has been really good. The offense is cold.

  3. I will say I expect Paxton to use more breaking pitches than he has this year.

Overall, I would rate this lineup a 9.5. Yes, this IS the best lineup tonight.

The lineup projects to a 0.358 xwOBA vs. Paxton.

Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, McCormick

Who might struggle? I think all should be OK.

If you are interested in SPONSORING, the Daily Astros Lineup Analysis- please contact me at

Here is the lineup vs. Paxton's pitch mix.

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