In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.
So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.
Today's pitcher is - Logan Gilbert for the Mariners. His pitch mix this year has been.
Gilbert is one of those pitchers I described in the optimal Astros lineup article as hard to classify in my labels of dominant pitch type. The Astros will want to dig into the pitch to LHH/RHH data. For our purposes today, because of the effectiveness of the slider, we are going to label Gilbert a RH Breaking dominant pitcher. The Astros will want to understand how the batters match up vs. other pitches too. Honestly the table at the bottom will be the best to really understand this matchup. The optimal lineup would be.
Abreu is on the IL. Tucker is sick. Kessinger is on IL for health and safety protocols. Julks was called up today. Singleton was supposed to start, but Dusty changed his mind per Chandler Rome. One has to wonder if it is a COVID outbreak.
At the bottom I also added the table that projects vs. Gilbert's pitch mix.
This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.
My thoughts on today's lineup:
This is the worst lineup since I have started doing this. Not all is Dusty's fault here but this lineup SUCKS.
No Tucker. Yes, I know he is sick. Minus 2
Why no Singleton vs. RHP? Dusty changed his mind? Why? Dusty NEVER changes his mind. - Minus 1
Starting Maldy vs. RHP- minus 2.
Pena - 0.234 xwOBA vs. Breaking pitches- minus 1
THIS is a game that Diaz only makes sense at catcher because HE is not good vs. Breaking pitches from RHP. Yes I am glad he is playing 1B again I guess. But he needs to catch vs. RHP. Period.
An overall projected xwOPA of 0.321 - minus 1.
Overall, I would rate this lineup a 3. I hope I never see this lineup again.
Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Maybe Alvarez if they don't just pitch around him. Or if they groove a fastball to anyone. There should be no fastballs middle middle.
Bet the under. Watch this lineup will score 10 runs just to show me.
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Here is the lineup vs. Gilberts's pitch mix.