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Today's Astros Optimal Lineup Analysis- 8/18/23

n my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.

So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.

Today's pitcher is - Bryce Miller for the Mariners. His pitch mix this year has been.

Miller pitches

Miller is a RH fastball dominant pitcher. The optimal lineup would be.

Astros optimal

Abreu is on the IL. Hensley has been added to the tables.

At the bottom I also added the table that projects vs. Miller's pitch mix.


BREAKING NEWS - Tucker is Out (sick) - lineup revised

This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.

My thoughts on today's lineup:

  1. It is a case of Bad news and Good News

    1. Bad News- Dusty decides to have Maldy catch France. France has thrown well to both. Maldonado vs. an RHP costs every lineup 2 in my score. Dusty NEEDS to stop starting Maldy vs. RHP. Period.

    2. Losing Tucker HURTS- another -2

    3. Good News- Diaz is starting at 1B tonight +0.5. This is huge and needs to happen more. I do not know how good Diaz is at fielding 1B. I do know Abreu is not good and Single appears to be below average. IF this team does have Brantley and Alvarez covering LF and DH, Diaz will need to play 1B more.

  2. There is a lot of red and pink in tonight's lineup.

Overall, I would rate this lineup a 6.5. The Astros are a GOOD fastball hitting team.

Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? I am going to go with Alvarez. Several are possible.

Who might struggle? Maldonado vs. RHP

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Here is the lineup vs. Miller's pitch mix.

Astros matchup vs. Miller

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