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Today's Astros Optimal Lineup Analysis- 8/16/23

In my recent article describing the optimal Astros lineup, I described that every night might have a different answer depending on if the SP was RH or LH and what their dominant pitch types were.

So today, let's do the quick application of that thought process. Let's compare the optimal Astros lineup with the choices Dusty Baker has made today.

Today's pitcher is - Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins. His pitch mix this year has been.

Luzardo mix

Luzardo is one of those pitchers I described in the optimal Astros lineup article as hard to classify in my labels of dominant pitch type. The Astros will want to dig into the pitch to LHH/RHH data. For our purposes today, because of the effectiveness of the slider, we are going to label Luzardo a LH Breaking dominant pitcher. The Astros will want to understand how the batters match up vs. other pitches too. The optimal lineup would be.

Astros Optimal

Abreu is on the IL. Hensley has been added to the tables.

At the bottom I also added the table that projects vs. Garrett's pitch mix.


This is the lineup Dusty is rolling out.

Astros Today

My thoughts on today's lineup:

  1. Dusty continues to believe Diaz cannot hit LHP. It's just not true. In essence, Dusty is choosing to start Singleton vs. the LHP vs. playing Diaz at first today. In six starts Singleton had one GREAT game and three bad games.

  2. Dubon starting is not a huge surprise.

  3. Overall, because Maldy has been good this year vs. LHP, this is a good spot to start Maldonado. Projected xwOBA of 0.383. If you have extra cash to burn, maybe call a friend- Just saying.

  4. Luzardo's slider MAY be an issue for several of the Astros.

Overall, I would rate this lineup a 6.5. A good slider is a problem for Astros hitters.

Who will RAKE for the Astros tonight? Tucker is most likely

Who might struggle? Bregman may be challenged.

If you are interested in SPONSORING the Daily Astros Lineup Analysis- please contact me at

Here is the lineup vs. Luzardo's pitch mix.

Astros vs. Luzardo

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