Words matter to me and I know I can be a pain in the butt about them. Yesterday and for the foreseeable future I am warning you I will continue you be difficult when it comes to the Tucker narrative. I might write in more detail about this but here is my statement.
If you say Tucker has sucked this year, then that tells me one of three things
You have not watched his PAs and are just looking and inferior stats to make broad and imprecise statements.
'You do not understand the nature of the randomness in baseball
That performance cannot truly be statistically measured in less than 150-200 PA.
True talent is best understood by metrics that account for the antecedents of success like xwOBA, xERA, and xSLG.
This is why when I do deep drills and my best work I am giving it to you based on those stats ESPECIALLY when projecting the future.
You don't want to know these things and just want to follow and enjoy the game. That is your prerogative as a fan. This site may not be for you.
As I wrote yesterday in the "What Is Wrong With The Astros- The Batting" article yesterday Tucker has been unlucky not bad.
Who would you guess was most unlucky before you even saw this data? Kyle Tucker and you would have been right. Tucker is almost 200 points worse than he should be. His wOBA is a bench player at risk of getting cut; his xwOBA is of an MVP candidate. He is about to break out. Trust me. Stop saying Tucker is not good or frustrating or anything negative about him OR you will look as foolish at you would have this time last year.
That is what we do here at LarryTheGM.com. We are real about the facts here and words and facts matter. I got redirected last night for bringing my analysis based mentality into the chat for the Locked on Astros show last night. That audience has not and most likely will not read that article (although about a 1000 people have!), and therefore they are likely in one of the three buckets I described. That inner voice that directs me told me I was out of line in that forum so I apologized and left.
I apologize to the Locked On Astros guys. That chat forum may not be a good one for me to comment in at least near term,
Here is my challenge and I ask for your help. Facts matter to me. Our reach here is limited. Despite our tag line of "Start The Season Smarter" we cannot and will not influence everyone. Help me stay grounded as I try.
Here is the truth about Tucker
- He has been historically unlucky his wOBA is 0.154 less than his EXPECTED wOBA (it was 0.195 points 3 days ago)
- Through about 70 PA 2021 Tucker looks almost exactly the same as 2022 Tucker maybe worse with more power
- At the end of the year if 2022 Tucker is close to 2021 Tucker, that man is a near All-Star Again
Tucker does not suck in 2022. He is just off to the same unlucky start he was experiencing last year. Why does that difference matter? The actions one would take are different if their performance was bad vs. they were just unlucky. Fortunately, the Astros should know that it is the latter.
So what is wrong with Kyle Tucker? Nothing. It just another April of bad luck.
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