The Astros Officially Welcome Hunter Brown!

Today the Astros made it official and added Hunter Brown to the active 28-man roster with Yainer Diaz. We showed several likely DFA candidates in our roster article here and Goodrum and Solomon were DFAed to make space for the two prospects on the 40-man roster.


Hunter Brown, 24, is the top prospect in the Astros system. He was drafted in the 5th round in 2019 (by Luhnow) and has generally gotten better each year.

Prospect Ratings


Fangraphs- #1 Astros, #86 Overall

Baseball America- #1 Astros, #40 Overall

MLB Pipeline- #1 Astros, #71 Overal


Hunter Brown is the GOLD of the Astros Prospects,


Specifically Brown's pitches are rated


Fangraphs

Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 30 | Overall: 50


Baseball America

Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 40 | Overall: 55


MLB Pipeline

Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 55


That is starter stuff and it is EXCELLENT.


How good will he be?


I averaged what the projection systems are calculating for Brown in 2022 and compared that to:

- The current Astros Starting Pitchers group (a top 3 group of SP in MLB)

- All pitchers in the MLB

- All SP in the MLB


Don't get lost in the numbers. Use our heat map standard rules (red is good, blue isn't).


Brown projects to

  • strike out more than average

  • walk too many with his current control

  • be a better than average pitcher in this rookie month


The closest Astros comparisons stat wise among the current SP

  • Garcia in K/9

  • Javier in BB/9

  • Urquidy in ERA

  • Javier in FIP

Needless to say that is a REALLY GOOD pitcher


Why now?


Brown was eligible for the rule 5 draft in December and therefore was going to be added to the 40-man roster then. He appears to be ready. The Astros haven't really manipulated the service time on pitchers very often. Hunter Brown can help.


How will the Astros use Brown? Will he be on the postseason roster?


Many of you won't remember this but think David Price for the Rays in 2008. OK Price was like a top 2 pitching prospect in the MLB in 2008-2009 and the top pick in the 2007 draft, but I expect the Astros will use Brown in much the same way. Price actually debuted in mid September and pitched in 5 games with 14.0 IP. He THEN FINISHED three ALCS games including a SAVE in game 7 and also finished two of their five World Series games. Price was incredible as a rookie that postseason.


So I expect Brown will probably pitch in six to seven games this September and maybe one start. I do expect he will be on the postseason roster and be a high leverage multi-inning RP for the Astros. You will remember when Hunter Brown joined the Astros,


Welcome to the Astros Hunter Brown! Don't worry about Astros Twitter. I will have your back.


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