He hasn't pitched in a baseball game since 9/24.
He hasn't pitched for the Astros since 9/12.
His ERA in 14.2 IP was 5.52 in 2023
His ERA in the PCL in 31.2 IP was 2.84 in 2023. This was in a league where the average runs per game was 6.10.
In my Astros ALCS Detailed Matchups and Prediction article I showed the Rangers project to have a xwOBA of 0.347 in the ALCS. That is too HIGH!
Here is the BAD NEWS. He had a FIP of 7.28 and a fWAR of -0.4.
The secret weapon would matchup to the Rangers with a 0.343 xwOBA vs. the starting lineup. Don't get TOO excited this secret weapon would be deployed in a VERY specific way against a very specific group of Rangers hitters.
The Secret Weapon is Parker Muchinski. Here is his detailed pitch matchup table.
The batters Muchinski would be leveraged against are in red above. This threesome batted in this order in the Texas ALDS. Heim is actually a switch hitter.
Evan Carter was relatively terrible vs. LHP in both the majors and minors (0.595 OPS vs. LHP/ 0.922 OPS vs. RHP). The Rangers will likely sit him vs. Valdez.
Imagine it is the sixth inning and Carter is coming up vs. Javier (0.381 xwOBA) or Urquidy (0.360 wxOBA). Who do you want pitching the next three batters?
If the Rangers PH for Carter with Grossman (0.383 xwOBA vs. Muchinski), they would give the Astros the MAJOR matchup advantage in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings with their RHRP.
As we did the video this afternoon, Clint pointed out another spot the Astros could use Muchinski vs. Taveras (#9), Semien (#1), and Seager (#2).
Yes this would work too.
Muchinski in the fifth or sixth might be a key matchup and make him a secret weapon in the ALCS for the Astros.
Given Graveman is not available, the Astros might turn to Muchinski for their 13th pitcher. Book it.
If you missed anything from ALCS Preview Day, here is the list.
✅Morning- My Astros ALCS Guide - Available at LarryTheGM
https://www.larrythegm.com/post/astros-alcs-guide
✅Mid-day- My Astros ALCS Detailed Matchups and Prediction - Available at LarryTheGM
https://www.larrythegm.com/post/astros-alcs-detailed-matchups-and-prediction
✅💲Afternoon- ALCS Pitcher - Batter PITCH TYPE Matchup Data- EXCLUSIVE PATREON CONTENT - Available at Patreon
https://www.patreon.com/posts/alcs-pitcher-90976780
✅Late Afternoon- My YouTube ALCS VIDEO Preview - Available at YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOyerLOrCCQ
✅Night- Astros ALCS Secret Weapon
https://www.larrythegm.com/post/the-astros-alcs-secret-pitching-weapon
I mean what else could you possibly want?