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Texas Longhorns' Path to the CFP

The week 12 college football playoff rankings were announced Tuesday. Texas remains at #7. What is the path for the Texas Longhorns to reach the CFP?

CFP Rankings

Let's go through the most likely path.

Here is the dream scenario for the Longhorns.

Top 9 Schedules

The most likely and best plan for Texas is for Georgia to win out.

Longhorns fans need Ohio St. or Michigan to blow the other team out.

It would be great for Florida St. to lose in the Swamp or the ACC Championship game. Since neither is likely at all, I will show FSU winning out and finishing #3.

Texas needs to win out for this to happen.

Texas fans need Oregon St. to beat Washington and/or Oregon. I will say Washington loses at Oregon St. This is a KEY game to monitor this week for Texas Longhorns fans.

Whichever team- Oregon or Washington- that loses to Oregon St. needs to beat the other in the Pac-12 Championship game. For this illustration, I will say Washington squeaks it out in Las Vegas.

Let's add the other top 25 teams to help illustrate what the 12-team playoff would look like is we had it this year and what it would look like if the teams had these final rankings in 2024.

Top 25 Schedules

If all of that happens and with my projections for the rest of the conference, here is what the 2023 Big 12 final standings would look like.

Big 12 Standing

I also show the likely bowl games for each Big 12 team in this scenario based on the bowl selection process for the conference. I should note that no other Big 12 school would make a New Year's Six bowl.

Given the scenario above this is what the final top 25 for the CFP would look like. I also show, based on the conference affiliations in 2023/2024, who would get into the College Football Playoff in each year IF the final rankings were as shown.

Rankings and CFP

Will all of this happen? Probably not. A fan can dream right? None of this happens if Texas does not will vs. Iowa St. and Texas Tech.

Can Texas make the CFP still? Yes. This is a Texas Longhorn's Path to the CFP.

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