Since July, I have repeatedly advocated the Astros trade for and then after the season sign one LHRP- Andrew Chafin.
I wrote many times that the Astros needed RP that were good vs. both LHH and RHH.
Chafin in 2021
vs. LHH wOBA 0.220 xwOBA 0.260
vs. RHH wOBA 0.238 xwOBA 0.272
His actual stats were incredible and better than his EXPECTED stats. He should NOT have been THAT good in 2021. I discussed xwOBA in the postseason and how the Astros were managing matchups BASED on expected stats.
I have found a sleeper that was just the opposite of Chafin. His expected stats were way better than his actual performance. So who is this sleeper?
Hector Santiago
Immediately, you are going to revolt and hate this idea. It MAY not work, He is 34 years old. Hear me out.
This will not be a huge contract. This will be a one-year deal and may be a minor league deal. But let me give you the same stats as Chafin.
Santiago in 2021
vs. LHH wOBA 0.358 xwOBA 0.235
vs. RHH wOBA 0.291 xwOBA 0.268
His EXPECTED wOBA was BETTER than Chafin to both RHH AND LHH.
The projection systems hate him. His 2021 expected stats were an anomaly, His actual 2021 3.42 ERA was not spectacular as the expected stats would indicate.
His general 2021 stats ERA 3.42/ xERA 2.83/ FIP 3.13/ xFIP 4.09
Did he discover something or was it complete luck?
Sign him TODAY Astros. Take a shot. It MIGHT work.
One addition, Santiago was suspended for PEDs in July. I missed that (thanks for the help Climbing Tal's Hill.) BUT he should be available after 20-40 games. If he can be right without PEDs, it is worth the risk.
The truth is there just aren't great options for LHRP that are not Raley 2.0 (terrible vs. RHH). The Astros need to pursue options.
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