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Myth Busting: Astros One Year Ago Today

Myth Busting: Astros One Year Ago Today


Myth #1: Yainer Diaz is Terrible Compared to Last Year


One Year Ago Today

83 PA

101 wRC+

0.3 WAR


Today

221 PA

98 wRC+

0.7 WAR


Status: False- He is now very close to where he was hitting last year at this time


What happened the rest of 2023?

294 PA

134 wRC+

2.2 WAR


Diaz got better as the weather got hotter in 2021 and 2022 in the minors too. Perhaps, we just need to calibrate to allowing Diaz be Diaz early.


Diaz may have been playing too much.


Conclusion- He was playing too much. Manage Diaz's PT to 70% to 75%. Enjoy the ride.



Myth #2: Jake Meyers has never been even close to this good


One Year Ago Today

175 PA

110 wRC+ 1.1 WAR (Third on the team)


Today

175 PA

119 wRC+ 1.5 WAR (Fourth on the team)


Status: False- He is now very close to where he was hitting last year at this time. His playing time is basically the same.


What happened the rest of 2023?

166 PA

64 wRC+

0.2 WAR (Tenth on the team)


Meyers slumped in June 2023 (70wRC+). Dusty decided to play Meyers less. Meyers never got going again.

Conclusion: Do not sit Meyers too much. Maintain 65-75% Starts.



Myth #3: Alex Bregman sucks this year and has never played anything like this


Two Years Ago Today

230 PA

110 wRC+

1.2 WAR

One Year Ago Today

273 PA

111 wRC+

1.2 WAR


Today

258 PA

102 wRC+

1.5 WAR (His Defense has made his WAR HIGHER on this date than the previous two years)


What happened the rest of 2023?

451 PA

134 wRC+

3.2 WAR (Third on the team)



Conclusion: Alex Bregman is just fine. Reports of his demise were premature and looking worse by the day.


Myth #4: The Astros are so far back and have no chance to win the division


I saved the best for last.


One Year Ago Today

The Rangers were 40-21 in first place

The Astros were 36-27 in second place and were 5.0 games behind

The Mariners were 30-31 in FOURTH place and were 10.0 games behind


The teams finished

Astros 90-72

Rangers 90-72 (Won the World Series)

Mariners 88-74


Today

The Mariners are 36-29 in first place

The Rangers are 30-33 in second place and are 5.0 games behind

The Astros are 29-36 in third place and are 6.5 games behind


The Astros are in very close to the same position they were last year on this date. In case you think it is too late to make up 6.5 games and win the division, the Astros were 6.5 games back and in third place on 6/24/23. Now try to tell me this team cannot win the division.


There you go. Narratives busted. Myths busted. Relax Astros fans, and enjoy the ride.


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