I have delayed and wrestled with this CFP Semifinals predictions for weeks.
I disagree with my system for predicting these games. I am going to go with my system.
In the College Football Reference site there is a listing for the ratings of teams.
In this table is a column labeled SRS. CFR defines it as
SRS -- Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.
As shown the four CFP teams are rated:
Rose Bowl
Michigan- 24.18
Alabama- 18.14
Sugar Bowl
Washington- 18.01
Texas- 21.33
For my system I ratio these two number for each game.
The ratios would be:
Rose Bowl
Michigan- 57.1%
Alabama- 42.9%
Sugar Bowl
Washington- 45.8%
Texas- 54.2%
I then multiple these by the Over/ Under numbers for the game.
The predicted scores are:
Rose Bowl- 45.5 Over/ Under
Michigan- 26
Alabama- 20
Sugar Bowl- 62.5 Over/ Under
Washington- 29
Texas- 34
So, there you have it. My official score predictions for the CFP Semifinals games today.
Personally, I think Alabama and Texas are going to win in blowouts. I just don't have any data to support that belief.
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