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My CFP Semifinals Predictions

I have delayed and wrestled with this CFP Semifinals predictions for weeks.

I disagree with my system for predicting these games. I am going to go with my system.

In the College Football Reference site there is a listing for the ratings of teams.


In this table is a column labeled SRS. CFR defines it as

SRS -- Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

As shown the four CFP teams are rated:

  • Rose Bowl

    • Michigan- 24.18

    • Alabama- 18.14

  • Sugar Bowl

    • Washington- 18.01

    • Texas- 21.33

For my system I ratio these two number for each game.

The ratios would be:

  • Rose Bowl

    • Michigan- 57.1%

    • Alabama- 42.9%

  • Sugar Bowl

    • Washington- 45.8%

    • Texas- 54.2%

I then multiple these by the Over/ Under numbers for the game.

The predicted scores are:

  • Rose Bowl- 45.5 Over/ Under

    • Michigan- 26

    • Alabama- 20

  • Sugar Bowl- 62.5 Over/ Under

    • Washington- 29

    • Texas- 34

So, there you have it. My official score predictions for the CFP Semifinals games today.

Personally, I think Alabama and Texas are going to win in blowouts. I just don't have any data to support that belief.

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