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My Astros Plan- 11/29/2021 5PM

Updated: Dec 2, 2021

The 11/26-11/30 period may be the greatest free agent signing period in the MLB in at least a generation. I am time stamping this because things are just that fluid right now

Linxwiler (@mrlinxwiler) asked me on Twitter Larry, do we still sign a SS or CF along with LHRP?

In the Off-season Guide we laid out multiple options. I believe there are now - TWO major options. Of course, the Astros might deviate from this with the LHRP option but work with me on this.

With the signing of Seager to a $325/10yr deal, I think this sets the ACTUAL market for Correa. I always thought the LHH might get incrementally more than Correa (less than $1MM AAV more). I never talked much about Seager because I just NEVER thought he was an option for the Astros.

I stated the Astros were probably at $159M in CBT payroll before a single FA is signed. If Montero is not tendered tomorrow that is another $3M. If the CBT goes to $220M vs. Crane holding at $209M, then the Astros are at $64M to spend.

I believe there is a reason Verlander is not official yet. I believe they may end up doing some creative things with his contract to get the official AAV in 2021 down. This would be similar to what the Astros did with Odorizzi in 2021. They will do these gymnastics ONLY if option 1 below is fired, Let's say they work the financing magic to make the $25M AAV into a $22M AAV.

So before we talk about the two plans lets summarize.

Astros have $50-64M at start of FA

- Sign Neris $8.5AAV

- Sign Verlander $22-25AAV

Astros have $16.5M- 33.5M

Plan One- The Correa Plan

Surprise! What if the Agreement all along has been for the market to get set and then an 8-10 yr deal?

In the off-season guide I guessed $320/10 yr- $32MAVV. What if that is $31.5MAAV @ 10 yr or $32.5M AAV @ 9yr or $33.5M AAV @ 8 yr. Carlos you decide. Opt out after year 4 if you want it.

Relief Pitcher- We have REALLY hamstrung ourselves financially. The Astros will get the best LHP for a $1MM AAV they can. My challenge to Clint was to pick and he gave me two Daniel Norris or Chasen Shreve . The xwOBAs favor Shreve. Get him today. I will buy that for a $1MM prove it contract.

Total - $32.5M AAV to $34.5M AAV- Crane extends to the limit, Verlander plays ball with deferred money all to keep Correa.

Plan Two- The Taylor Plan

Full Circle and I come back to Chris Taylor. You have read why before- option to start at both SS AND CF. Wherever we need him Taylor is the answer. Complete insurance for the Rookie Pena and the Sophomores McCormick and Meyers.

My years have been consistently short in my original predictions. I will say it costs the Astros $16M AAV @ 4yr or $15M AAV @ 5yr.

Relief Pitcher- I get the guy I have wanted from July. Andrew Chafin. Lets say it is $5M AAV @ 3yr or $6MM @ 2yr.

Total - $20M AAV to $22M AAV

That is the two plans at 4:50PM 11/29 Mark it. More details to come

Lets talk about it in the Forums.

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Nov 29, 2021

I prefer option 2 with Taylor and more pitching

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