It has been a difficult decade for Texas Longhorns fans. Every year I believe the team will be better than they turn out to be. Last year, I predicted they would shock the world and finish 10-2. I knew that prediction was based on a lot of hope and not a data. This year might be the same.
That is the nature of much of what I will write here about the Longhorns. This is a FAN space more than a DATA space for UT. I admit it. I bleed burnt orange and my dad's Silver Spurs are on the bookshelf behind me. I am the middle generation of what is now three Longhorns graduates. I suspect my daughter will someday have a child in Austin too. That is just how it is in this household. What is different here is that we are real about who we are. Ok that's the disclaimer. Now it's time for this year's bold prediction.
First, I expect an offense with Bijan Robinson at running back and Xavier Worthy at wide receiver is going to be great. Yes, I know the offensive line has a ton of questions. How soon can all of these top freshman OL recruits start to answer them? I am going to always believe and say sooner than later. I believe Quinn Ewers will make a lot of mistakes and just blow us away at times with great plays. The more the offense relies on Robinson, Worthy, Roschon Johnson, and Jordan Whittington the better. I think it will be a lot and Sark will get them quickly in open lanes and let them do what they can do- win games. As you can see from my score predictions, I think the Longhorns score a lot and win a lot of semi-shootouts.
Then, there is the defense. My overall belief is that PK, who was thought to be one of the great defensive coaches a year ago, did not become an idiot last year and that IF Sark is right that the culture of his team is dramatically better, I think we are going to see that on the defense this year. I simply do not believe the defense can be as bad as the Longhorns were last year. Even if the defense is average, last year's team probably wins eight. I think the addition of Gary Patterson as an analyst has challenged this coaching staff to be smarter and scheme better. I suspect that is going to make the players play FASTER defensively and to be better about covering their assignments.
Our belief in the defense will be tested in week two. Alabama is going to pound this team. Do not be dismayed, Bama may have a once in a generation team this year. At the end of the season people might be saying, 'Texas only lost to them by 24 and that's pretty good considering the rest of the season.'
Part of my optimism in the Longhorns is that I THINK most of the rest of the Big 12 is not as good as they were last year too. If I were to actually plot the distribution of likely outcomes this year it probably looks like this.
If you go game by game through my predictions Sooner fan is laughing. I just think the Sooners are about to realize that Caleb Williams covered a multitude of issues last year and the talent drain that left with Lincoln will be a lot worse than the Sooners think. Plus I am NOT picking the Sooners to win in Dallas again like i did last year. I do have Texas principles to maintain!
I want to believe so I am going to say the Texas Longhorns end up 9-3. They probably don't go to the Big 12 championship game and end up winning the Alamo Bowl again. OK how times have changed for the overly optimistic Longhorns fans. But get ready because the Horns are coming.
So leave a comment on your bold predictions for your team or for the Longhorns in the comments below,
Overall, NCAA Predictions still to come this week.
Hook 'Em Horns!
(Yes this is a mainly Astros site but this season I do intend to cover the ups and downs (no none of those!) of the Longhorns in 2022. Please join me too on that journey here.)
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