This is the first of many MoneyMakers content that are exclusively available to MoneyMaker subscribers. Please tell me what you think.
First- a disclaimer, this content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
MoneyMakers,
For years I have deployed a very simple system that at its core was the basis of what I predicted for the season record for the Astros. I was describing the data I had pulled together for the payroll allocation article to my wife, and it hit me that THIS article SHOULD be my first MoneyMaker article.
My system could easily be deployed for EVERY team in the MLB to give a 2024 predicted win total. These then could be compared to the current Vegas odds to see where there might be a significant enough gap that one may choose to place some action on.
My system for wins predictions may be frustratingly basic to you. It is better than what I see sports media outlets put out.
1. Pull the projected WAR from Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team)
2. Average all of the WAR team totals - currently 37.4
3. Subtract the team projected WAR by the average then add 81.
Example- Astros projected WAR 47.6
Proj Wins- 47.6 - 37.4 + 81 = 91.2
THIS is why you hear me say they are as good or better than last year and may win 92-93 games in 2024. (Projected WAR was 48.1 a few days ago.)
Right now, you are scoffing that it can't be THAT easy. Well, for the Astros I know if I think they still are going to do anything major or not. So, I adjust my expectations a few games at most from that number.
Last year this system said the Astros were going to win 88-90 games consistently. Astros fans were swearing the team would win 95-105 games. I said 92. THIS system was better.
So where are the opportunities? Where does the win total projected from WAR differ from the Vegas odds?
Let me give you some things to consider before we show the odds.
1. What type of team is this? What is their winning mode? - There are some teams I would be concerned about putting this sort of bet upon.
A. Tankers (Black)- If a team is tanking, they will be trading players, and therefore WAR away. This is the reason Oakland has been a bad bet to take over.
Tankers to Avoid Over in 2024- Oakland, Colorado, Nationals, White Sox
B. Blue bloods/ Rich team/ High demanding fans (Blue)- There are teams whose fan bases demand winning from. These teams are almost not allowed to disappoint. They will buy wins to appease their fan bases.
Blue Bloods to Avoid Under- Dodgers, Yankees. Mets, Boston
Last year the Mets gave up. One could argue the Red Sox and the Yankees did late too. I think this make all of these teams less likely to allow disappointment in 2024.
C. Overachievers (Green)- Remember what Vegas odds are really. Odds are designed to key a balance of action on both sides. This is the key to understanding the Astros odds last year. The Astros we a best bet to go under last year, but they were the defending World Series champions. The public would have hammered the over if Vegas had set the odds at 88.5 wins, and those people would have won.
There are teams that have tended to beat their public perceptions. They have good development systems or a lot of good prospects. I would consider these teams for an over bet if their WAR was above the Vegas line too.
Overachievers to consider over- Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Baltimore
D. Overreaction (Yellow)- Here is the counterbalance to the overachievers idea. Be very careful with teams that surprised last year. Will they be overrated this year and have their odds over inflated?
Overreaction teams to avoid over in 2024- Baltimore, Cincinnati, Texas
2. These numbers can change right up until opening day. Free Agents are signed. Trades are made. Players get hurt.
Placing a bet early exposes one to risk of those things happening, but it also may be taking an advantage that the market has not accounted properly for a roster's true talent yet.
3. I gave you the odds from Vegas Insider for four sportsbooks. A game or more margin here is important. Please your bet where the odds are in your best interest.
Example Guardians
Caesars over 76.5- 110+
MGM over 76.5- 110+
FanDuel over 77.5- 106+
Rivers over 78.5- 114
If we want to place an OVER bet, you should go to Caesars or MGM. Do not go where you have to give up one or two game margins.
4. We want a significant market anomaly to bet here. I would avoid ANY TEAM that did not have AT LEAST +/- 6 margin.
So here is how this system would have looked LAST YEAR. It is VERY important to me if I give you this kind of content that I show how it would have played out previously. The data is sorted on the gap of pre-season WAR projected wins minus the Vegas (Fanduel in this case) win total.
This system would have recommended two bets- Pittsburgh over and Houston under. Both would have won. I think there is another key here. Bet only the few teams the system recommends.
Houston under would have been THE BEST BET. Sometimes having a little distance in time helps with perspective. Now, I understand WHY I was freaking out last year at this time. Astros fans, believing the propaganda and able to point at 95.5 win Vegas total odds were completely comfortable and dismissive of Texas (81.5), LAA (82.5), and Seattle (86.5). I saw a Houston team (88.5) that was vastly overrated and in a VERY tight division race with three other teams - Texas (84.0), Seattle (82.6), and LAA (84.0). A projected Vegas division win of nine games is vastly different than a 4.5 division lead I was seeing.
OK, I held you in suspense long enough. What do the current odds for 2024 look like?
For 2024, I pulled the Vegas odds at https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/win-totals/Â for Fanduel, BetMGM, Caesars, and Rivers. Again, bet at the best location and DO NOT give up a game in this process.
Here is the 2024 table.
Again, there are only two from the system.
- Guardians (83.4) OVER at Caesars or BetMGM (76.5)
- Angels (76.8) OVER at Caesars (70.5)- Monitor reports on Trout's health.
These are the 2024 MLB Win Total Best Bets.
I would say this.
The Oakland A's are VERY tempting here too. It might be worthwhile to read if their tanking tendencies are over. It sure seems like it is baked into their number. Some of their young talent may help the team this year.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are overrated right now. They project to win 95 games second only to Atlanta. Will they really add to try to get the first seed at the trade deadline? Any news about significant Dodgers injuries in March might be enough to pull the trigger there too.
Well, there you have it. This is the early MoneyMakers MLB Over/ Under Win Totals Best Bets look. I will update before the season starts too.
PLEASE let me know what you think about this. Is this helpful? Do you want more stuff like this?
MoneyMakers, reach out to me to discuss. Comment here or message me on Twitter or on the website.
Comments