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MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/12/24

Updated: Apr 12

This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.


My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/12/24- Astros vs. Rangers.


I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.

Video at 6:15PM

It will be a series AND Daily Lineup review.



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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.

Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.


Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.


https://www.larrythegm.com/post/premium-astros-series-guide-data-rangers-4-12-4-14

You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Rangers 4/12- 4/14 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.


The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data

This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.

We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.


Note: I am having to put this out prior to the lineups being announced. Consider the bench folks if I don't have it right.


Starting for the Astros- J.P. France vs. the Rangers

J.P. France is off to an interesting start. His 0.359 BABIP would indicate he has been unlucky. This is validated by a great 2.42 FIP vs. his 4.76 ERA. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.278 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.338.


France vs. Rangers

Overall, the Rangers team has a 0.342 xwOBA matchup vs. France. That would be OK for the Astros.


The Rangers best bet fantasy stars today are:

  • Garcia (0.426) - over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 on Bovada)

  • Seager (0.424) - over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 on Bovada)

  • Semien (0.405) - over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 on Bovada)


The runs model would project the Rangers to score 5.4 runs today if France was in the game for 9 innings.


Starting for the Rangers- Dane Dunning vs. the Astros

Dane Dunning is off to an interesting start. His 0.148 BABIP would indicate he has been very lucky. This is validated by a 6.14 FIP vs. his 4.15 ERA. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.400 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.325.


Lineup Note per Chandler Rome.



That is why McCormick and Bregman are out.










Dunning vs. Astros

Overall, the Astros team has a 0.333 xwOBA matchup vs. Dunning. That would not be good for the Astros bats. The Astros miss two very productive bats today and the overall lineup suffers.


The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:

  • Alvarez (0.481) - over 1.5 total bases- (+100 on Bovada)

    • This is the LarryTheGM pick of the day. Pick Alvarez as many ways you can today.

    • Also Alvarez to hit HR- (+280 on Bovada)

  • Tucker (0.399) - over 1.5 total bases- (+120 on Bovada)

The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.1 runs today if Dunning was in the game for 9 innings.


Let's have fun tonight Astros fans.

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