This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 3/31/24- Astros vs. Yankees.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
I will give you a short video preview at 12:30PM.
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After three straight losses, the Astros are scuffling, and the fan base is in a meltdown. Follow my X account at @larrythegmman for real takes. Even after everything I say below, watch the Astros break out today. That's baseball.
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You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Yankees (larrythegm.com) for the Yankees series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- J.P. France vs. the Yankees
Today the Astros go with France. France and his 0.289 BABIP were lucky to pitch to a 3.83 ERA last year. His FIP was a far more representative 4.66. France's xwOBA data, especially vs. RHH and his fastballs overall, are red flags for future performance.
LATE LINEUP Change
Berti in at 3B, Cabrera to SS, Volpe given a day off
You can see why Berti is a good option with his projected 0.390 xwOBA.
This lineup has a 0.365 xwOBA matchup vs. France. This is challenging for the Astros. Another bad matchup for the starting Astros pitchers.
France is probably not a great choice in Daily fantasy today. I know I have said that now for the fourth day. This just in, the Yankees have a good offense folks.
Some of the Yankees stars should have big days.
Judge 0.538 (oh no)
Torres 0.415
Soto 0.405
These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Yankees.
The runs model would project the Yankees to score 6.1 runs today if France was in the game for 9 innings. Hader does not like pitching on back-to-back days. Pressly and Abreu pitched in last night's loss. Bielak may have to give the team 3 IP if he can (his xwOBA would be 0.368- worse than France.)
Folks, it looks bleak for the Astros pitching AGAIN.
Starting for the Yankees- Clarke Schmidt vs. the Astros
Clarke Schmidt was a typical #4/#5 SP for the Yankees last year. His ERA of 4.64 was marginally worse than his FIP of 4.42. The pitch usage data below shows the real issue for many of the Astros. Schmidt throws a LOT of breaking pitches (Sweeper and Knuckle Curve) and they are very effective vs. RHH. His xwOBA vs. LHH is 0.352 which will explain one lineup substitution for today. Many of the Astros players are far worse against these pitches. As a team. the Astros hit 0.184 wOBA vs. Knuckle Curves from RHP. REMEMBER THAT.
Abreu and his 0.260 xwOBa vs. RHP Breaking pitches have the day off. The Singleton sample size is questionable, so I think the team is banking on the Schmidt mediocrity vs. LHH.
This is the day where the Astros NEED Alvarez and Tucker, and they SHOULD get their best.
Overall, the Astros team has a 0.322 xwOBA matchup vs. Schmidt. This is not good for the Astros.
Look at all of the red in the column to the right.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
Alvarez 0.493
Tucker 0.421
The runs model would project the Astros to score 4.7 runs today if Schmidt was in the game for 9 innings.
Can the Astros avoid the sweep? The model would say no. The Astros are overdue for a positive model surprise.