This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 3/30/24- Astros vs. Yankees.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
Sorry guys no video today. Holiday weekend family events take priority.
Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
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Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
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You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Yankees (larrythegm.com) for the Yankees series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Hunter Brown vs. the Yankees
Today the Astros go with Brown. Brown was better than his 5.09 ERA. His FIP was 4.37. Brown's xwOBA data would lead to an expectation of an average pitcher which is what the FIP reflects.
What will be very interesting is the last two in the Yankees order vs. the RHPs.
Wells (LHH) is a much better matchup vs. RHP and is terrible vs. LHP. His matchup is best vs. Hunter Brown (more fastballs). The Yankees went with Wells yesterday. Will they do the same today too?
Berti (RHH) is a better matchup vs. RHP than SHH Cabrera. Cabrera has been hot and I don't expect they will pull him yet, but the Yanks MIGHT go with Berti.
This lineup has a 0.366 xwOBA matchup vs. Javier. This is challenging for the Astros.
Brown is probably not a great choice in Daily fantasy today. I know I have said that now for the third day. The Yankees have a good offense folks.
Some of the Yankees stars should have big days.
Judge 0.481
Soto 0.444
Wells 0.438
These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Yankees.
The runs model would project the Yankees to score 6.2 runs today if Brown was in the game for 9 innings. Abreu is back and the best part of the bullpen should be ready.
Starting for the Yankees- Marcus Stroman vs. the Astros
Marcus Stroman was good for the Cubs last year. His 3.95 ERA was even worse than his 3.58 FIP which was a B+ grade as well. His xwOBA data validates that he was an overall better than average pitcher.
I am publishing this in advance today due to plans, so I need to guess what the lineup will be.
I have assumed the Astros use the same lineup. It might be a spot where Dubon gets in the lineup in place of Meyers.
The Astros team has a 0.352 xwOBA matchup vs. Stroman. This is good for the Astros.
Look at all of the red in the column to the right.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
Alvarez 0.468
Tucker 0.400
A lineup note- it might be a good idea to move Abreu to sixth or even seventh. McCormick has been a better matchup all year.
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.7 runs today if Stroman was in the game for 9 innings.