It is Opening Day!
This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 3/28/24- Astros vs. Yankees.
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The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Framber Valdez vs. the Yankees
Both the Astros and Yankees have top 3 offenses as shown on the site and in the video last night.
Last year Framber's xwOBA numbers were very average vs. RHH (0.323) and significantly better than the wOBA numbers (0.282). THIS IS A WARNING. He should have pitched worse.
The Yankees team has a 0.363 wOBA matchup vs. Valdez. This is BAD for the Astros.
DO NOT use Valdez in Daily Fantasy nor your fantasy league today- please.
The Yankees RHH stars at the top of the lineup project to pummel Framber.
Judge 0.492
Stanton 0.436
Torres 0.423
These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Yankees.
Once the bullpen enters things could change quickly.
The runs model would project the Yankees to score 6.1 runs today if Framber was in the game for 9 innings. I will be very happy if he is in the 4th inning still.
Starting for the Yankees- Nestor Cortes vs. the Astros
Nestor Cortes was terrible for the Yankees last year. His 4.97 ERA was significantly worse than his 4.49 FIP. The lefthander had an EXCELLENT xwOBA (0.177) vs. LHH (only 168 pitches total however) and a below average xwOBA (0.341) vs. RHH. Remember this fact in what I am about to show you.
Astros fans would have begged for this lineup last year.
The Astros team has a 0.335 wOBA matchup vs. Cortes. This is mediocre for the Astros.
The absolute shocker in this data is the fact that it WARNS NOT to expect big production from Alvarez and Tucker vs. Cortes. If they rake vs. Cortes, it is a huge sign of major success for them. If we are in the fifth inning and people are complaining that Alvarez and Tucker look lost, you heard it here first.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
McCormick 0.433
Altuve 0.401
A lineup note- notice McCormick is ahead of Diaz. Will be interesting if that is the norm or if the standard plan vs. LHP. Notice Diaz was also not great vs. LHP power speed last year too.
Also, do not be shocked to see Caratini vs. Rondon and a majority of LHP.
Once the bullpen enters things could change quickly for Alvarez and Tucker.
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.1 runs today if Cortes was in the game for 9 innings. Maybe the RHH get to him and maybe his first start limits him to 5 IP.
It could be a tough day for the Astros. I suspect the offense gets to the Yankees bullpen, and the Astros still win.