This is a master chart of buyers and sellers at the MLB trade deadline AND detail of availability and needs.
Explore the MLB Master Buyers and Sellers Chart for the latest trade deadline insights. Discover who's buying, and who's selling.
You will never think of the Trade Deadline the same.
This is a reference for all possible trade deadline action.
The data here comes from fangraphs.com and baseballtradevalues.com.
Who is Buying and Who is Selling?
I think there will be 8 potential "Hyper Buyers". These are the teams with playoff odds of greater than 80% in Fangraphs. All of these teams are likely to add SOMETHING by 7/30/24.
I think the Astros headline the group of 4 "Buyers". The Astros are buying as Dana Brown said all season.
I think the teams with postseason odds of less than 10 percent will be "Hyper Sellers." The media will claim some of these teams won't sell but I believe they will.
I believe the Rays will sell too and they have made it clear they will listen to offers.
There are 3 more probable sellers. These teams might sell some rentals and non-core players but not the whole team.
That leave 4 "Possible Buyers". It probably depends on what happens to these teams for the next 4 days.
Trade Asset Quality by Team
BaseballTradeValues.com defines the surplus value of the players in the minors and majors for each team and then creates a total.
From this list the Astros have the 24th highest pool of available surplus value for trades.
Surplus value leads to a player's trade value. At a high level a player's surplus value is the value of the production they deliver (by WAR) minus the salary paid the player. The more years a player is under team control multiplies a player's yearly surplus value into an overall trade value.
I detailed this last year:
Buy and Sells by Position- Who is needed and who is available by team- Detail
For every team I pulled the Fangraphs projected remaining WAR by position and considered the relative rank of the WAR in that position to the other teams.
For Buyers- marked "B" by position
If a team had a position in the lower half of the league, it was considered a possible buy area
For Sellers- marked "S" by position
if a team had a position in the top 10-12 teams of the league, it was considered a possible sell area
Not all of these will be correct
For example, I overrode the Rangers selling SS and 2B. They aren't selling those.
Would the Angels REALLY Mike Trout? Not likely.
The Astros
the two green B cells- 1B and SP- indicate their need areas
the red S cells- indicate sellers that the Astros would most likely engage
Yes, this COULD be an oversimplification. For example, the Astros are likely to sell OF to get what they want.
The chart is meant to match buyers with sellers. Teams that would do both would require special treatment. Could there be similar OF buyers willing to sell 1B or SP? Yes, possibly the Phillies (SP for OF) and Mets (1B for DH) and maybe even the Royals.
Buyers and Sellers by position- Summary
This table shows the summary of Buyers and Sellers and who has needs and who has availability.
Yes, the chart would say the Astros need SS. We know that there is no trade for SS coming.
Who has what the Astros Want?
1B
Now the Vladimir Guererro Jr. and Yandy Diaz rumors make sense, right?
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Starting Pitching
Maybe that deal for Jack Flaherty makes sense.
For the true data geeks here is the entire table. Let me know what you think and ideas you get.
With this data, you will never think of the trade deadline the same again.
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