Meyers over McCormick for the Astros ALDS Game 2?

Yesterday, I heard Dusty thinking out loud that he might play Meyers over McCormick in Game 2 of the ALDS because McCormick was likely to struggle vs. Castillo.


So this is exactly the kind of question our ALDS Guide Matchup system would generally have value in helping us answer - McCormick or Meters. Here is what the system says.


The 2022 data show no pitch that Castillo has thrown this year that Meyers would have an advantage over McCormick.


Here is the problem.


This system requires a significant sample size to work. As stated in the guide the data set for Meyers is one of the ones I have LEAST confidence in. Jake Meyers ONLY had 160 PA in 2022 and he had those with varying levels of his shoulder recovery and the psychological effects of struggling because I THINK he was still building strength the whole year. The data set does not and cannot really use his AAA PA. Jake had only 163 PA in 2021 so that data as a stand alone set is not good either. Combining the pre-injury 2021 and the recovering from injury 2022 data is not great either. In the end, we are NOT going to be able to ve very conclusive about Meyers data other than to say I would use him AND McCormick vs. a heavy cutter dependent pitcher like Kirby.


So....


The answer is there is not real way for me to know with publicly available data, It looks like a bad call but this is one where my data is not good enough to say that.


Sorry Folks, I try to keep it real with you. When I don't know, I am going to say I don't know.


Tell me what YOU THINK.


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