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Improving the 2024 Astros- The Comprehensive Plan

Updated: Nov 17, 2023

We have been on a journey this offseason to define a realistic plan that the Astros would follow something similar this offseason. If you have not been here with us, you may want to start with our "Offseason Outline".


We have a professional GM now in the Astros Front Office- unlike last year at this time. Dana Brown is going to execute a strategy. Here is how we put together what we will now show as a comprehensive plan for improving the 2024 Astros. This is an example of what their strategy could be.


  1. We defined our financial limits understanding this team has huge extension and re-signing decisions to make. From our "Astros 2024-2025 Payroll Projection" article we concluded that the Astros had around $18-20M AAV TOTAL to spend on preferably one-year deals to stay under the CBT2 in 2024 and CBT3 in 2025,

  2. In our "A First Look At The 2024 Astros" we defined our primary team needs as these four areas:

    1. Backup catcher that would be an upgrade over Salazar or Berryhill (NOT Maldy- he would hurt this WAR)

    2. Good LHRP (with loss of Neris probably a second RP too)

    3. LHSP that can pitch at least 100 IP

    4. Starting LHH OF that is strong vs. RHP- if payroll space is available

Then we went to work to balance cost vs. benefit of Free Agent and Trade options.


For the Pitchers in our "Improving the 2024 Astros- Pitchers Today" article we recommended this plan:

"Starting Pitching

  1. Sign Wade Miley to a 1-year deal worth about $8M OR

  2. Trade for Boston's Nick Pivetta

Relief Pitching

  1. Trade for Trevor Megill from the Brewers AND

  2. Sign Jake Diekman, Scott Alexander, or Trade for Garrett Crochet

The Astros would take care of their critical pitching needs with these moves. The total cost should not be over $12M AAV for the acquisition of the three pitchers."


For the Hitters in our "Improving the 2024 Astros- Position Players" article we recommended this plan:

"Catcher

  1. Sign Caratini ASAP if possible- $3-4M AAV

  2. Trade for Kelly if the trade cost is reasonable- net $3.5M AAV

  3. Sign Tom Murphy if 1 and 2 are not possible- $3-4M AAV

Left Field

  1. Get Oakland to trade Rooker- net ~$5M off the payroll

  2. Sign Jung-hoo Lee if price is reasonable- If below $10M AAV

  3. It MAY be best to stick with Meyers playing more regularly than the next options

  4. Get the Cubs to trade Tauchman- close to neutral payroll

  5. Get Cincinnati to trade Fraley - net ~$5M off the payroll

  6. Sign Heyward if all else fails- $4-4.5M AAV

The Astros could take care of these two positional needs for less than $8M AAV."


I am not sure the Astros will view the OF listed as worth the investment except for Rooker. For now, I will show the final plan without the OF addition because this aligns with Brown's statements as well.


The overall improvement plan looks like this.

2024 Astros Improvement Plan


Catcher

A. Sign Caratini ASAP if possible- $3-4M AAV

OR

B. Trade for Kelly if the trade cost is reasonable- net $3.5M AAV


Starting Pitching

A. Trade for Boston's Nick Pivetta- $6.9M AAV

OR

B. Sign Wade Miley to a 1-year deal worth about $8M AAV


Relief Pitching

A. Trade for Trevor Megill from the Brewers $0.8M AAV

AND

B1. Sign Jake Diekman or

B2. Sign Scott Alexander (est. $2M) or

B3. Trade for Garrett Crochet


The total cost would be around $13M AAV. The projected WAR of the four players in bold is 5.0.


Players that could be sent in these trade deals- Corona, Correa, Dirden, Hensley, Kessinger, Salazar


Rule 5 Draft implications

We also documented several Rule 5 eligible players in our "Astros: 2023 Rule 5 Draft- Protection List" article.


May be added to the 40-man roster- only Corona was added

Rule 5 eligible players that may be traded

Players on the 40-man roster that may be taken off

This is my comprehensive plan for improving the 2024 Houston Astros. I KNOW there are not huge names here. THIS is a plan the Astros COULD do,


Let me know what you think.




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2 comentários


Actually very close to what I expect Astros to do except they may go with OF as which is one of your options. It willnot excite the fan base which largely ignores budget realities. Good job.

Curtir
LarryTheGM
LarryTheGM
15 de nov. de 2023
Respondendo a

It probably comes down to SP or OF and the SP injury recoveries may dictate that choice.

Curtir
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