The season is finally here! We are an Astros based blog site, but I hope the Diamondbacks fans will agree that the DATA I present here is helpful for their understanding of their team as well.
The structure of these guides will be the same and be updated with input and changes as I receive and process it especially for the other teams.
Analysis of the MLB projected roster
Heatmap
Projected Batting Lineup per Roster Resource
Projected Pitching Lineup per Roster Resource
Position by position ratings
Greatest Strengths
Greatest Weaknesses
Top Prospects – focusing on those who can impact in 2022
Payroll analysis- flexibility for trades or additional free agent signings
Areas to Address by the trade deadline expires
Season Prediction
We will put out a guide for the other teams in the league as the Astros play them for the first time and update the other teams before each series as needed.
With the new 2022 season, we give you the Diamondbacks 2022 Season Guide- The Essentials- Astros Opponents Guide
Analysis of the Diamondbacks Projected Roster
(per Roster Resource on Fangraphs.com)
Heatmap
Here is the overall projected WAR of each team by position for each team as of April 6th, 2022. The key for this table is to understand where the Diamondbacks rank by position to understand their relative strengths and weaknesses as a team to the league. In short, the top team will be deep red, and the bottom team will be dark blue. The table attached is sorted by overall WAR.
Projected Batting Lineup per Roster Resource
Players in red will be on the injured list at the beginning of the season. The Diamondbacks have some key players out. According to notes on the fangraphs.com site- "Rotowire News"
Ahmed (shoulder) hopes to begin taking at-bats at extended spring training this week, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. (4/11/2022)
Rojas (oblique) was placed on the 10-day injured list Thursday. (4/7/2022)
Luplow (oblique) was placed on the 10-day injured list Thursday. (4/7/2022)
Players in green are the key additions to the lineup (trades or rookies). The Diamondbacks will be trying many new players.
The stats shown here are PROJECTED 2022 stats. The table in green shows the league average OPS and wOBA for each spot in the batting order in 2021. It then shows the projected team performance vs. that league average.
Arizona hovers at or below average through most of the lineup. This will get better when Rojas and Luplow return. The middle of the order seems challenged to drive in Marte. Only Beer seems to really projected to excel in what Roster Resource predicts is the seventh spot in the order. Perhaps will move up if he shines.
Projected Pitching Lineup per Roster Resource
The average ERA/ FIP in the AL
Starting Pitchers- 4.46/ 4.38
Relief Pitchers- 4.15/ 4.15
Projected stats in table are heat mapped vs. these averages
Players in red will be on the injured list at the beginning of the season. Weaver is an important arm for Arizona and the news from RotoWire News sounds ominous. "Weaver was placed on the 10-day injured list due to elbow inflammation Sunday. (4/10/2022)"
Players in green are the key additions to the lineup. Arizona has taken flyers on several pitchers hoping someone performs better than multiple projection systems predict they will. They can then flip those over performing players for prospects that might helpthem.
Position-by-position Rankings
The Diamondbacks relative rank by position is shown below.
Greatest Strengths
Ketel Marte is by far the Diamondbacks best player. He will be the player they build around.
The only real strength this team has beyond Marte is the future. Age and youth is their strength. They have the 10th best organizational talent and several top prospects.
Greatest Weaknesses
The Diamondbacks project to have weaknesses everywhere in 2022.
This may be one one of the worst teams in the league this year. Expect them to sell anyone in trades that they can leverage for future success.
Top Prospects – focusing on those who can impact in 2022
According to MLB Pipeline, these are the Diamondbacks top prospects.
The Diamondbacks have an extremely deep prospect base. They have 12 players rated 50 or more by mlbpipeline.com. For comparison with the other top ten rated organizations from Baseball America.
Payroll analysis- flexibility for trades or additional free agent signings
According to the Roster Resource payroll projection, the Diamondbacks currently project to have a $102M payroll in 2022. The CBA negotiations determined a new CBT level of $230M, so the Diamondbacks have massive payroll room. They might even take on some salaries at the trade deadline if the other team also gives them prospects. I do not expect Arizona to be active signing Free Agents in 2022.
Areas to Address before the Trade Deadline expires
Arizona will be a seller at the trade deadline and will sell off any playersthat can give them prospects for the future. The Diamondbacks window to compete is likely 2024 or later.
Season Prediction- As currently constructed, the Diamondbacks project to win 65-69 games and finish fourth in the NL West. It could get worse if they sell off more. I will say 65 wins and just edging out the Rockies for fourth place. a
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