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Astros Win the ALDS!

Updated: Oct 12, 2023

THEY DID IT!


The Astros won the ALDS yet again and are headed to the ALCS for the seventh straight time.


The Astros looked more like the powerhouse teams of the past few years instead of the 90-72 team that won the tiebreaker to claim the AL West title. It was fun for us Astros fans, and I wanted to run through some of the details here to show what the Astros did to win another ALDS.


Let's start by looking at the hitting and where the Twins and Astros were and how they did as a team in the ALDS.

Both teams were at the top of the league hitting in September. They were hot as can be.


So, what happened in the ALDS?

The Astros maintained their September batting and hit the exact 123 wRC+ as they did to end the season.


The Twins tanked dropping to 92 wRC+ as the Astros pitching shut them down.



Here's how the pitchers were doing in September:

The Twins were pitching GREAT in September and the Astros were struggling (4.52 FIP).


As you can guess the Astros pitchers stepped up in the ALDS.

The Twins pitchers get an F. The FIP indicates it could have been even worse.


Astros Players- Who stepped up in the ALDS?

In these tables I show the season stats and the ALDS stats.

First again the bats.

Also shown are my ALDS xwOBA projections. You can see that is a small sample size players' performance swing dramatically.

- Alvarez WAS even more dominant than the dominance that was projected

- Abreu was INCREDIBLE. He hit 0.513 xwOBA vs. a projected 0.273!!

- Brantley and Dubon both graded A's as well although Dubon's xwOBA indicates there was some luck involved.

- Look for Tucker to bounce back and have a strong ALCS.


Now the Pitchers.

Notice the ALDS Grades! These are based on FIPs. Eight of the Eleven of the pitchers grade A+- INCREDIBLE!


- Six of the pitchers gave up NO runs.

- Pressly and Abreu were so good their FIPs are NEGATIVE!

- Urquidy pitched way better than the FIP shows and the xwOBA is more representative.

- Hopefully Valdez can step up in the ALCS.


There were several heroes of the ALDS:

- Alvarez

- Abreu

- Pressly

- Abreu

- most of the rest of the bullpen


Well, there is your Astros ALDS by the numbers. What surprised you?


I will break down the ALCS in the next few days in the way that is typical for THIS site- OBJECTIVELY.


I am so happy for every baseball fan in Texas. This is special. I grew up ten minutes from old Arlington Stadium. I moved to Houston area in 1987 for my professional career. This state has had great teams. This year there are two AL Baseball Titans. Here is to a great #ALCS!!


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