On 10/3/21, I laid out what I thought the Astros ALDS roster should be and what I thought it will be here. This morning, I have published scouting reports on the White Sox batters and pitchers.
I promised some follow-up articles. In this follow-up essay, I will address how the Astros match up vs. the White Sox at each spot in the batting order and each starter and relief group. I will use the Boxing round scoring system at each comparison and then we will add all the “rounds.”
Rather than do this by defensive position, I am going to compare each slot in the batting order 1-9, then compare the two platoon replacements and then the bench. First the here are the numbers.
I will add more detail here as time allows but I wanted you to see the analysis and the results. In comparing the offenses, I give the Astros a 102-100 advantage. This is probably closer than you thought. Let me know where you think I got it wrong.
For the pitchers, we will do the same process. Each starter squares off head-to-head. The two players for each team in the long relief roles are compared. The two closer capable players square off. The primary setup men are evaluated. Finally the middle or alternate setup men are compared.
Again, I will add more details as time allows. In summary, I give the White Sox pitching a 76-74 advantage.
If we add the hitting and the pitching, both teams are at 176. This illustrates why I believe this is an extremely tight series and likely to go to five games.
Use these matchup guides as reference as you watch the ALDS.
Stats from Fangraphs.com