The offseason is a process for me. One where I start with certain targets and then I will discover more as the options get whittled down and I revisit my initial filtering.
What if I told you that I have a new Free Agent Pitcher target that I think the Astros should sign?
Let's describe him first in my favorite "Who Am I" way.
I am a LHSP who is 35 years old
I had Tommy John surgery in March 2022
I came back in 2023
From 5/12/23 (1st start) to 8/11/23, I had a 3.36 ERA/ 3.85 FIP/ 15 GS/ 80.1 IP
In my last 3 starts (8/16/23- 8/26/23). 7.53 ERA/ 7.23 FIP/ 14.1 IP
Per Jeff Zimmerman
Mining the News (12/11/23) | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball (fangraphs.com)
"knee started acting up on June 24th. Before the injury he had a 3.29 ERA (3.13 xFIP), 12.0 K/9, and 1.07 WHIP. After the inury, he posted a 5.31 ERA, 7.8 K/9, and 1.47 WHIP. His performance decline can be seen with a drop in his fastball velocity."
Fangraphs projects that I will
Deliver 2.3 WAR in 2024
That I will get offerred a $8M/ 1-yr contract
This $3.48M/ WAR efficiency makes me the number ONE efficiency FA on the LarryTheGM Free Agent tables.
With that last bullet point, now you know why he is on my radar.
Here is my SP FA table.
This pitcher is James Paxton.
If you remember my screening metrics from this article Improving the 2024 Astros- Pitchers Today (larrythegm.com)
My wish list for a potential SP
Capable of delivering 100 IP- Projected 142 IP- Check
ERA/ FIP less than 4.20
2023 Full season- 4.50 ERA/ 4.68 FIP- Miss
But the last three starts where his knee was bothering him balloned those stats.
From 5/12/23 (1st start) to 8/11/23- 3.36 ERA/ 3.85 FIP- Check
2024 Projected - 4.02 ERA/ 4.15 FIP- Check
Prefer under 35- 35 - Limit
Prefer wOBA and xwOBA in both platoon splits to be less than 0.330 in 2023
wOBA
2023
LHP- 0.347
RHP- 0.323
Career
LHP- 0.321
RHP- 0.290
xwOBA
2023
LHP- 0.311
RHP- 0.297
Career
LHP- 0.291
RHP- 0.287
An AAV <$14M/ yr and the lower the better- projected at $8M - Check
I have never been a huge Paxton guy. If he is willing to sign for $8M, he may be the pitcher the Astros should sign.
Dana Brown has made comments that would lead one to believe a SP is not a priority for the Astros. I find the RP market to be very unattractive especially for LHRP. There are a few more attractive RHRP options, but a trade mat be needed for a true LHRP. This deal may be a late late deal that gets done if the Astros realize the SP arms are not tracking to being ready.
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