Let's get grounded on who is and who isn't available for Astros trades this month. Let's also be objective on how valuable our players are. This will help you evaluate the fake trades people try to make you believe are possible.
Listen or read any baseball media this month and your head is going to be filled with crazy trade ideas. I even started my possible trade articles with one I labeled wild. Here are most of the trade articles we have done already.
It is time to get serious now. I wanted to take a step back today because it is completely clear to me that most don't understand a few things:
Who is and who isn't really available and viable for the Astros to trade.
Of those that aren't really available, who COULD be available if the other team blew them away with a trade offer.
What fair trade values are and why no well-run team is going to value players THAT differently.
In this article we will cover the first two of these. However, I do not think it is as easy as saying tradeable and not tradeable. In my perspective, when it comes to the Astros and making a trade, I believe there are actually EIGHT categories of players here.
Untradeable- Even if the team wanted to trade these players, doing so is almost impossible.
Untouchables- These are the players the team is not going to trade at this time.
Blow me Away- These players are nearly untouchable unless a team is willing to blow the Astros away with a value double or triple or more their fair trade value.
High Price- These players are available but at a premium (125-150% of fair trade value.)
Available- These are the players each team will be willing to trade at near market trade value.
Discount- These players are on the clearance aisle. They might only be worth 30-60% of their fair trade value.
Price Dispute- The Players in this group are given no value and I believe the Astros would demand they do have significant value.
Throw-Ins- This group of players have almost no trade value and are likely throw-ins on a deal that needs one more player from the Astros to be considered fair.
You may think I have made it too complicated. I do think this system helps one stay focused on who is and who isn't available. Also, it helps to understand who has value and who doesn't really.
The second part of the series is here to explain Trade Value.
In an ideal world one would have these buckets for EVERY TEAM. IF the Astros hired someone like me, I could create this for any team they wanted.
Most of this data comes from the BaseballTradeValues.com website. I have defined the buckets and some of the other data. There are some players in the Astros system that do no not show up on their list. Most of these players are in the throw-ins group.
Let's look at who is in each bucket.
Untradeable- Even if the team wanted to trade these players, doing so is almost impossible.
These five can't be traded even if the Astros wanted to trade them. Their negative trade values mean they would have to pay to trade them and at these huge negative values for the top three, that is not happening.
Brantley MAY BE out for the season and a Free Agent next year. He cannot be traded.
Last year, Odorizzi was traded with a negative 7.5 trade value, BUT he was traded for Smith's negative 5.7 trade value. THAT is the only way negative trade value players get traded- one bad contract for another bad contract.
This group is DIFFERENT than the untouchables. This group is untradeable.
Untouchables- These are the players the team is not going to trade at this time.
One thing to say about this group is that it is specific to this season. Players in this group could be in the next group this offseason. For the Astros who are making a postseason run, THESE players are untouchable.
You may think there are too many on this list. The key success for the Astros in trades over the last decade was not to trade critical players the team was building around or would be building around. That is this group.
You might think there are others that should be in this group. The Astros might agree. For me they are likely in the next group.
Editor note- not sure why Diaz is on the BaseballTradeValues.com site as being in the minors. My tables were all complete when I saw this.
Blow me Away- These players are nearly untouchable unless a team is willing to blow the Astros away with a value double or triple or more their fair trade value.
For the RIGHT deal and if a team was willing to drastically overpay them, the Astros would listen. Some of these players are in some of the trades I have imagined. That is because they were needed to match the escalated trade values of the players I proposed to trade for. Any of these players only gets traded in a blockbuster deal.
High Price- These players are available but at a premium (125-150% of fair trade value.)
While the default position for the previous group is that they are not available, the default position for this group is that they are available but at a premium price. Obviously, to allow some of these players to be traded, there would need to be a player at that position return. In summary, the odds of these guys being traded is low but possible.
Available- These are the players each team will be willing to trade at near market trade value.
This is the group of players that are most likely to be traded; but, of course, not all of these will be traded. Most of the ideal Astros trades would be a package of these players.
Discount- These players are on the clearance aisle. They might only be worth 30-60% of their fair trade value.
For one reason or another, this groups probably cannot net the trade value shown. They could be added to any trade for a team that has interest in these players.
Price Dispute- The Players in this group are given no value and I believe the Astros would demand they do have significant value.
The Astros would value these three players WAY above what is shown. Stanek and Maton are both Free Agents after the season, but they are NOT players the Astros can afford to trade.
Throw-Ins- This group of players have almost no trade value and are likely throw-ins on a deal that needs one more player from the Astros to be considered fair.
These players and others not shown on the baseballtradevalues.com website could be players the Astros add to a deal to make it happen.
We just covered the first two of these three:
Who is and who isn't really available and viable for the Astros to trade.
Of those that aren't really available, who COULD be available if the other team blew them away with a trade offer.
What fair trade values are and why no well-run team is going to value players THAT differently.
To read the third part read this:
See the trade value tables below.
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I include here the full tables. You can use these tables whenever you see a trade being proposed and you two will realize how incredibly wrong most media rumors are.
Sorted by the categories
Sorted by Name
Sorted by Value
